The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Aiyuk prove to be the best WR value on his team, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Brandon Aiyuk’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The more mock drafts you do, the quicker you develop a strategy and start picking out players in specific ranges of a draft that are being undervalued, sometimes even to their teammates. One of those players in 2023 is Aiyuk, who is a better draft-day value than his teammate Deebo Samuel.
The WR17 overall, Aiyuk had a career-best season ever since getting out of Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse. Playing in all 17 games, Aiyuk set career-highs in targets (114), receptions (78), yards (1,015), and touchdowns (eight).
However, he was 25th in points per game at 13.4 PPR. Additionally, Aiyuk was only a WR2 or better in 30% of his games. That’s it. 70% of the time, he was a WR3 or worse and scored fewer than 14 PPR points in each of those 12 games.
That’s not to say there weren’t streaks where Aiyuk looked great. His stretch between Weeks 6-11 saw him record over 80 yards as the WR18 or higher in four of his five games as the overall WR6 in half-PPR scoring and eight in per-game output at 15.5 fantasy points.
But Week 11 is a red herring, as he only had two receptions and 20 yards on the day but somehow scored two touchdowns to salvage the outing for fantasy.
Nevertheless, there are also a ton of positive metrics working in his favor. Aiyuk was 19th in receiving grade, 24th in YPRR, and 23rd in YAC/reception. The fact that he scored 11 touchdowns despite sitting 36th in deep targets and 30th in red-zone targets is impressive and means the 49ers likely should start prioritizing Aiyuk a little bit more in the red zone.
Sitting 15th in points per target and 21st in points per route run, Aiyuk is slightly held back due to an offensive scheme that spreads the ball out, but he is a big play when needed, and, more times than not, he is also open as he tied with Davante Adams for the eighth-best open rate.
While we don’t quite know yet who will be under center between Brock Purdy and Trey Lance, the scheme isn’t going to change, and it’s one that we know can be very fruitful for fantasy football on the right day.
Although these will change multiple times through the coming weeks and months, Aiyuk is currently projected to catch between 65-70 of his 105+ targets for 875-900 yards and 6-7 touchdowns.
Should You Draft Brandon Aiyuk This Year?
As noted earlier, Aiyuk is a better value in 2023 fantasy football drafts than Samuel. Based on early ADP reporting from high-stakes leagues, Aiyuk is being drafted as around the 30th receiver off the board with an ADP in the low 70s, placing him at the beginning of the sixth round.
Aiyuk is generally being drafted almost twice as late as Samuel, despite the latter seeing a significant decrease in both touches and efficiency following the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey.
Last year, Samuel maximized his value both through a nearly seven-yard jump in yards per reception and an NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a receiver; those are two things that are unlikely to repeat themselves, and Samuel is likely being drafted based on what he did and not what he is going to do.
That’s why in drafts this fall, I am perfectly fine passing on Samuel and drafting Aiyuk three rounds later. That allows me to get a player who is not as directly tied to probably the best running back we have seen since LaDainian Tomlinson.
Although Aiyuk will compete for targets with Samuel and George Kittle, he remains an integral part of this offense and will likely sit within 5-10 targets of Samuel for a fraction of the price but all of the upside. If you want a piece of the 49ers’ passing game, Aiyuk is the player to draft.