Carolina Panthers wide receiver DJ Chark is now four years removed from his breakout 2019 season. On his third team in as many years, can Chark settle down and prove himself to be a useful fantasy asset? What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Update: DJ Chark is dealing with a hamstring injury, but the severity of the issue is unknown. As we receive more information, we will update the advice below accordingly.
DJ Chark’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Chark’s 2019 breakout largely came out of nowhere. For starters, he was on the Jaguars. Chark was also coming off a 174-yard rookie campaign. Historically, failing to reach 500 receiving yards as a rookie is a sign of doom for a receiver’s career.
Instead, Chark exploded for 73 receptions, 1,008 yards, and eight touchdowns, averaging 14.9 PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, Chark has never been able to build off this season. After five years, 2019 sure looks like the outlier.
Chark left the Jaguars at the conclusion of his rookie deal and signed with the Lions last season. Injuries limited Chark to just four games in 2021. They again reared their ugly head in 2022, causing Chark to miss seven contests.
In the games he did play, Chark was nothing more than a situational deep threat. Not counting his four-game 2021 season, Chark’s 16.7 yards per reception were a career-high.
Chark was fourth in the league with a 15.4 average depth of target and 10th with 9.7 yards per target. When he was targeted, he was efficient. But Chark wasn’t targeted very often.
Despite the Lions having a severe lack of talent behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chark earned just a 13.8% target share. His 16.1% targets-per-route-run rate was 91st in the league. Chark may have done reasonably well with his targets, but he was not good at earning them.
Should You Draft DJ Chark This Year?
After one year in Detroit, Chark now finds himself in Carolina. Somehow, he managed to land in a spot with an even weaker group of pass catchers.
Chark projects to be the WR1 for the Panthers. His top competition for targets will be a washed 33-year-old Adam Thielen, rookie second-rounder Jonathan Mingo, and failed 2021 second-rounder Terrace Marshall Jr. We can throw Laviska Shenault in there, too, I guess. The opportunity is there for Chark to re-establish himself as a guy who can lead a WR corps.
While Chark couldn’t ask for easier competition, we have two huge concerns. First, the aforementioned issue with Chark earning targets. It doesn’t matter if the lack of competition is there, targets are a skill statistic. In Detroit, Chark could not earn targets. Even if the guys around him aren’t particularly good, Chark needs to get open to earn targets. If the past season is any indicator, Chark may not be able to do that.
The second concern is Bryce Young. I believe in Young. He should grow into a quality NFL starter and be the Panthers’ long-term answer at quarterback. But in 2023, he’s a rookie. And rookie quarterbacks are very, very bad for wide receivers.
Only the truly elite wide receivers with truly elite quarterback prospects are able to break through with a rookie passer. I would stop short of calling Young an elite prospect, and no one would classify Chark as anything close to an elite wide receiver.
Chark has an ADP of WR57, No. 159 overall. He is right smack in between Thielen and Mingo, with the former going three spots before him and the latter three spots after him at the wide receiver position.
Forgive me for not going back and researching the historical ADPs of the past 20 seasons, but if I had to guess, WR54 is one of the lowest ADPs for the first wide receiver from an NFL team to be drafted in fantasy history.
I have Chark at WR58, right in line with consensus. I do believe he is the best WR on the Panthers, but on the whole, I would not advise drafting any pass catchers from this team. There’s just a very low ceiling for this passing offense. Chark is not someone fantasy managers should look to draft.