Houston Texans running back Devin Singletary oscillated between feature back and committee man during his four years in Buffalo. Now the clear backup to Dameon Pierce in Houston, can Singletary carve out a fantasy-relevant role? What is Singletary’s fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Devin Singletary’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
I never understood why the Bills immediately looked to upgrade on Singletary after his rookie season.
As a rookie, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry, ranked top three in evaded-tackles-per-touch rate and 15+ yard carry rate, and top 10 in yards created per touch. Yet, they spent another Day 2 pick on the vastly inferior Zack Moss the very next season.
As the Bills looked to unjustly push Moss, Singletary had the worst season of his career in 2020. He still averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry, but his 9.0 PPR fantasy points per game were, by far, a career-low, especially following his 12.3 ppg rookie year performance.
Over the 2021 season, the Bills realized Moss was not an NFL-caliber running back and turned back to Singletary as their main back. However, despite playing all 17 games in both seasons, Singletary averaged just 10.7 carries per game. Of course, this was in part due to their pass-happy nature, and Josh Allen stealing carries.
Singletary put up some respectable efficiency numbers last season. He was 22nd in yards per touch at 5.1, 23rd in evaded-tackles-per-touch rate at 26.4%, and 11th in rate of carries that went at least 15 yards at 7.3%.
10.5 ppg is nothing to brag about, but it was good for an overall RB30 finish. That’s a mid-RB3, which is quite useful in fantasy. In every single one of my leagues, that type of player is starting every week for most teams.
Should You Draft Devin Singletary This Year?
Singletary now goes from being the lead back in a truly elite offense to the backup in one of the league’s worst. With that said, he was never a volume guy.
Last season, the Texans ran the ball 398 times. That should increase this season, as their overall plays run should increase with them upgrading at quarterback from Davis Mills to C.J. Stroud.
Historically, rookie quarterbacks are bad for skill position players in fantasy. But in terms of their real-life team, Stroud undoubtedly makes them better.
Even so, they will need to run the ball considerably more for Singletary to see anywhere near the carries per game he saw in Buffalo. He’s also unlikely to be as efficient behind a worse offensive line on an offense with no real threat in the passing game.
Last season, Pierce averaged 16.9 carries per game. We would need to project a 2-3 carry per game decrease for Pierce in order for Singletary to be able to get to around 10 carries per game. It’s certainly possible. But even if it happens, would that be enough to give Singletary standalone fantasy value? Probably not.
Fantasy managers do not have a very good track record of both predicting handcuffs and projecting what percentage of the starter’s production those handcuffs can replace.
However, Singletary looks like one of the more certain handcuffs in the league. If Pierce were to go down, we have reason to be confident Singletary would be the feature back.
Singletary has an RB45 ADP, No. 149 overall. I am right in line with the consensus with him as my RB46.
At that price, Singletary is a fine pick. There is no opportunity cost, and Singletary is at least a proven commodity in the sense that if Pierce were to get hurt, it’s highly unlikely that Singletary would be useless. He would probably see more volume than he saw in Buffalo but with decreased efficiency.
Singletary can be the last or second-to-last running back you put on your fantasy roster in 2023 drafts. There’s nothing wrong with the pick. Just don’t expect him to be worth starting while Pierce is healthy.