The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr.’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Etienne repeat his breakout performance, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Travis Etienne Jr.’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Despite being drafted in 2021, Etienne’s career didn’t start until his second season. Etienne’s career hit a snag before it ever got started as he suffered a Lisfranc injury which forced him to miss his entire rookie season. Considering what happened with the franchise that year, this might have been a blessing in disguise.
Fully healed, Etienne was a force on the field for the Jaguars and finished the season as the RB17 overall and 24th and per game, averaging 11.0 half-PPR points while rushing 220 times for 1,125 yards and five touchdowns. He also caught 35 of 45 targets for 316 yards. But that doesn’t truly give credit to what Etienne did last year.
Etienne spent the first six weeks of the season as James Robinson’s backup. He averaged a sub-50% snap share and was the RB28 over this timeframe. But Etienne broke through and, in turn, broke out. From Weeks 7 through 17, removing a game against Baltimore where he left due to injury, Etienne was the RB10 in half-PPR scoring formats and the RB8 in PPR.
He finished the season tied for fifth in carries inside the 10-yard line, ninth in red-zone touches, fifth in the yards for reception, 10th in yards per touch, fifth in breakaway rate, and 16th in yards per route run.
If anything, Etienne’s touchdown total could’ve been higher as he only scored on four of his attempts from inside the 10-yard line.
Etienne’s target volume has room to grow, as he averaged a 22% target per route run rate in three of his last four games.
With Robinson gone, Etienne’s competition comes from JaMycal Hasty, D’Ernest Johnson, and 2023 third-rounder Tank Bigsby from Auburn. At 6’0 and 210 pounds, Bigsby brings a nice blend of both power and elusiveness and will be able to gain yards after contact.
While he won’t necessarily eat into Etienne’s reception total, he will be a factor inside the goal line and serve as a change of pace to Etienne.
I’m high on the Jaguars’ offense, and I’m certainly not alone in that thought. But is there almost too much talent for Etienne to reach his ceiling? There might be.
My initial projections have Etienne as part of a somewhat annoying timeshare with between 170-195 rushing attempts for 900-925 yards and 4-5 scores while catching approximately 40 of his targets for 380-400 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
Should You Draft Travis Etienne Jr. This Year?
Given the fact managers had watched Etienne dominate in college and then had to wait a year to see how talented he was at the NFL level, it’s no surprise he will cost a pretty penny on draft day.
Etienne currently has an ADP of RB14 on Underdog Fantasy, while our PFN consensus rankings place him at RB12.
Sitting in the fringe-RB1 territory is the correct value for Etienne, as fantasy football managers still have room for him to outperform his value. I could see Etienne dropping to the RB15 range based on the landing spot of Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon being found not guilty, which should bump up their respective ADPs.
Etienne makes the most sense if you’re playing in a full-PPR format, as you can capitalize on his dominant receiving role and primary rusher status. But I would be prepared for a few frustrating moments along the way, where a touchdown or a series go toward Bigsby and the lot.
I do like Etienne and think he will have a good season, but I prefer players like Derrick Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, and even Najee Harris, and Jahmyr Gibbs ahead of him at this moment. Ideally, I prefer Etienne as a high-end RB2, but if you’re attacking receiver early, walking away with Etienne as your first running back will never put you at a disadvantage.