The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Pittsburgh Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Will 2023 be the season Freiermuth jumps into the next tier at the position, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Pat Freiermuth 2023 Fantasy Projection
We all know by now that finding reliable upside and production from the tight end position can be very hit or miss. There are maybe five to six guys you feel great playing with, and the rest you hope to maintain their value.
Although he doesn’t carry the enormous upside of guys like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson, Freiermuth has put together two productive years in the NFL, which you do not see happen often.
Freiermuth finished as the TE7 in PPR formats (TE9 in ppg) with 63 receptions on 98 targets for 732 yards and two touchdowns. He was behind only Kelce (13) and Hockenson (10) and tied with Andrews (nine) for the most weeks inside the top 12 at his position.
Freiermuth was fourth amongst all tight ends in both target share (19.84%) and air-yard share (20.15%) while sitting No. 7 in target per route run rate, third in deep targets (12), seventh in YPRR (1.86), and 16th in points per route run (0.38) due to the lack of touchdown upside which is vital for the position.
There Are a Few Concerns Managers Must Consider With Freiermuth This Year
Seeing Freiermuth take the next step forward in his development was a welcome sight for sore eyes when considering the entire position. However, it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows for Freiermuth. His concussion in Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills was his third on record in the NFL and came in a span of just 20 career games.
But I do not see that being a significant factor in the decision-making process for fantasy football managers, as concussions are, unfortunately, a part of playing a violent, physical game, and Freiermuth isn’t the type to shy away from contact.
I expect an overall uptick in efficiency from the Steelers in 2023 as they revamped the entire blindside of the offensive line with Isaac Seumalo and first-round pick Broderick Jones. In Year t2o, QB Kenny Pickett will play more consistent football, as we saw at the end of last season.
The concern for Freiermuth is not at receiver but at TE with second-round selection Darnell Washington from Georgia. He is a unicorn, standing 6’7″ and 270 pounds, providing a massive red-zone target.
He, along with George Pickens and even Allen Robinson, will likely cut into Freiermuth’s red-zone targets. The larger Washington’s role and the quicker he gets up to speed, the larger the concern that a shift could happen this season.
That said, Freiermuth will still be one of the priorities on this offense and will be a reliable tight end for fantasy football this season. My early 2023 projections have Freiermuth with approximately 55-60 receptions on 80-85 targets for 600-650 receiving yards and 3-4 touchdowns as a low-end TE1.
Should You Draft Pat Freiermuth This Year?
Currently being drafted as the TE10 with an ADP just under 100, Freiermuth is going in roughly the beginning of the eighth round in 12-team non-Superflex formats.
There is some variance, as you would expect with mid-tier players, with Freiermuth going as early as pick 80 and as late as 123, but I expect him to be on the upper half of the range of outcomes, given his previous success.
I think it’s also a fair price for fantasy managers looking to grab a piece of the Steelers’ offense while filling their tight position with a reliable production floor.
Although I don’t see Freiermuth vaulting George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, and even Kyle Pitts, he is being drafted within a round of Darren Waller, Evan Engram, and David Njoku. If you don’t go for someone like Kelce or Andrews, drafting a tight end out of this range is a solid strategy for 2023 fantasy football drafts.
If you do draft Freiermuth, I wouldn’t mind also pairing him with a second TE that has more upside, such as Chigoziem Okonkwo, Dalton Kincaid, or Greg Dulcich, as rostering two TEs in redraft is becoming less and less frowned upon.
Starting Freiermuth should give you reliable weekly low-end TE1 upside for your fantasy roster.
At the same time, you allow players like Okonkwo and Kincaid to solidify their roles on their respective teams while also giving you an upgrade path down the line.