The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Njoku build off his productive season, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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David Njoku’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
After receiving a four-year, $54.75 million contract, Njoku had one of his best seasons yet. He finished third on the team in targets with 80 and set a new career-high with 58 receptions for 628 yards and four touchdowns as the TE15 overall and 10th in points per game (9.8 PPR).
Njoku was 11th in YPRR at 1.55, 10th in points per target, seventh in yards after the catch (YAC, 320), eighth in YAC/rec at 5.9, xFPT (+0.18), and YPTPA (1.37).
He has the chance to take any catch for 40+ yards, and in one-on-one situations in the red zone, Njoku is a matchup nightmare. In fact, he was second only to Travis Kelce in red-zone targets for TEs, so there is room for improvement across the board.
We should see that improvement not just for Njokju but for the Browns as a whole. While they did throw on 55% of their plays, Cleveland’s -7.6% passing rate over expectation was the fifth lowest in the league as they rode out Deshaun Watson’s 11-game suspension.
But with no distractions this season and an offense that is loaded with talent, with the likes of Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman joining Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Nick Chubb, Cleveland will be a dangerous offense.
Will Njoku reach top-three status in 2023? No, I do not think so. That level of volume is just not there, even if he squeezes out every drop of efficiency.
That said, Njoku was in the top 12 in 50% of his games, which is on the upper end due to the position’s volatility. In my early projections for 2023, Njoku comes in as a top-10 TE with approximately 60-65 receptions for 675 yards and five touchdowns.
Should You Draft David Njoku This Year?
While we do have an idea of what Njoku’s role and projection could be for this year, does it make sense to draft him? Managers certainly won’t get the same discount they were getting last season.
Based on early ADP reporting from high-stakes leagues, Njoku is coming off the board as approximately the TE10 with an ADP inside the top 100. That places him in the seventh or eighth round in 12-team leagues. That said, there is some variance in when you’ll see Njoku drafted.
The likes of Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson pretty much go in order. But once you get past TE5/TE6, it’s very much up in the air, with Njoku going anywhere between the 63rd to 100th selection on average.
This feels like the proper value for Njoku and even leaves room for him to outperform his ADP. If he finishes anywhere in the TE7-10 range, that is good value, and, barring injury, I expect him to finish as no worse than the TE12.
For a position with more volatility than any other one in fantasy football, Njoku, for the first time, might be a safe option in 2023. He’s going in the same range as Pat Freiermuth, Dalton Schultz, and my breakout for this year, Chigoziem Okonkwo.
While it will be harder for Njoku to vault up one or two tiers due to the talent on the Browns’ offense, he will, at minimum, return value for what you spend on draft day, which is more than you can ask for most selections in the eighth round and beyond.