As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Derrick Henry’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Twenty-five years ago, 13 running backs amassed 300+ carries. Two others — Marshall Faulk and Clinton Portis — were on pace for 300+ if they hadn’t gotten hurt. Another (Anthony Thomas) was on pace for 299.
You get the idea. It wasn’t that long ago when bell cows truly were “bell cows” and when most teams had one.
Henry is a throwback. The NFL doesn’t produce many guys like him anymore. Or rather, guys like him are rare in a league that continually chews up and spits out RBs before their rookie contract expires.
That Henry is No. 58 on the all-time carries list doesn’t do him justice. The two active players ahead of him (Ezekiel Elliott and Mark Ingram) are clinging to professional careers. The same goes for the next two active RBs behind him (Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray).
Among all current starting running backs, Henry has 33% more rushing attempts than the next RB on the active list (Joe Mixon). Henry is above the modern-day RB stratosphere. He’s on another planet.
So what does this mean for his fantasy value entering 2023? It ultimately depends on one key factor: Where will he play most of his games? Tennessee’s anemic passing attack last year didn’t do him any favors. Despite leading the league with 35 broken tackles and once again dominating near the goal line, the Titans’ offense was painfully one-dimensional.
Fantasy-wise, this didn’t matter so much. His incredible production masked a relatively low (for him) 4.4 yards per carry, which followed 2021’s half-season with a 4.3 ypc. When this franchise had an above-average passing game in 2019 and 2020, the ground game opened up for Henry, who racked up campaigns with 5.1 ypc (2019) and 5.4 ypc (2020). He led the league in rushing yards and rushing scores in both years.
But 2021 and 2022 were different stories. His significant 2021 injury aside, Henry has had to work harder the past two seasons to meet the same lofty fantasy expectations.
Turning 30 years old in January and confronting the possibility that rookie Will Levis might earn a bunch of starts, Henry could be faced with another season of stacked boxes and grind-it-out gains.
By contrast, if Tennessee goes into full rebuild mode and trades him before the deadline, then Henry’s value could change dramatically. On a Super Bowl contender with a strong starting RB, Henry might earn 14-16 touches per contest rather than his customary 23+. Or if an offensively strong team loses its starter for the year, the addition of Henry might result in elite production once again.
The range of outcomes isn’t vast. But for a guy who’s generally off the board in the first few picks of fantasy drafts, it matters.
Henry is the most overworked running back in years. He’s reaching advanced middle age for running backs. And when healthy, he’s one of the best fantasy RBs, period. But if you draft him, keep an eye on Tennessee’s early-season win-loss record. While Henry’s fantasy value seems pretty clear at the moment, it could change — for better or worse — if the gradually rebuilding Titans get an offer they can’t refuse.
Should You Draft Derrick Henry This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Henry with an ADP of RB8. It seems pretty conservative on the one hand. After all, we’re talking about Henry. As long as he’s out there, he’s producing. And he’ll remain a top option inside the opposing 5-yard line, where he’s collected 15 of his last 22 touchdowns.
However, the prospect of another team utilizing him in tandem with another starter-caliber RB has weakened his value a bit. Consider Christian McCaffrey joining Elijah Mitchell in San Francisco last season. Now picture Henry doing something similar, minus about three receptions for 25-30 yards per game.
We can envision how Henry might not be a top-10 fantasy RB in the second half of the season, and we can also envision him crushing it as an offensive focal point. That’s why his current ranking makes sense. He has a floor around the RB13 or RB14 mark. His ceiling hovers near the top three to five.
This makes him a neutral buy at his current market price.