As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Mike Evans’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
In the summer of 2016, I shared with readers my belief that Evans was a future Hall of Famer. He’d been in the league for only two years. But I’d seen enough. He looked the part, despite catching balls thrown by Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, and the still-raw rookie Jameis Winston.
Evans’ consistent greatness — regardless of his QB — has been almost absurd. Nine consecutive 1,000+ yard campaigns to begin his career. An average of one missed game per year. A range of 216-282 yards after the catch in each of his last five seasons.
From a fantasy perspective, he’s the guy you draft and forget about for all the best reasons — a weekly starter with monster pop, even when competing for targets with three alpha receivers like Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski.
Of course, those days are largely in the past. He’s now 30 years old and facing the post-Tom Brady era. Godwin, Russell Gage, and Cade Otton might be his biggest competition for targets. Not a huge concern. What matters far more is whether the Bucs’ new-look passing attack can come close to middling.
While a 21- or 22-year-old Evans could shine despite his QBs’ limitations, it’s a bigger ask for a 30-year-old who might just be on the verge of a decline. Maybe this year. Maybe next year. But it’s coming.
His broken-tackle rate has worsened slightly in each of the last four years. His two best catch rates occurred with Brady at the helm in 2020 and 2021.
We should expect at least a modest decline in that area in 2023, putting downward pressure on a ceiling that’s already capped by the strong possibility of fewer scoring opportunities.
Consider that Brady led the NFL in pass attempts the last two seasons — a combined 1,452 throws. Evans benefited from that historically high volume. His fantasy value improved dramatically with the knowledge that his quarterback averaged 40+ throws a game.
Now consider that last year’s median number of team throws was approximately 33.6 per game. That’s a significant difference. No doubt, those rostering Evans will feel the difference. There will be less room for error for a receiver who’s been an unquestioned weekly fantasy starter since his rookie campaign.
He’ll need to work harder to get his 10th straight 1,000+ yard season. As long as he stays healthy, it’s doable. But it’s no better than a 50/50 proposition on a team that might not surpass 3,500 passing yards.
Evans’ most realistic floor is around a 70-900-4 receiving line. His realistic ceiling is about 10% higher across the board. Simply put, he’s no longer an exciting draft pick. He’s someone you hope can be a weekly starter, knowing he might have multiple forgettable outings.
Should You Draft Mike Evans This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Evans with an ADP of WR34. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at WR33. It’s a reasonable expectation for all the reasons stated above. He was the overall WR17 last season and the WR14 in points per game.
Assuming modest declines in receptions, yards, and even touchdowns, he has only a narrow shot of remaining in the top 20 this season.
Can’t wait to see this in-game 🎯#GoBucs pic.twitter.com/w5Vmy7tdCA
— 𝗗𝗝 (@DJBucsFan) August 14, 2023
Something else to consider: WRs in the top 15-30 range are often pretty packed together with respect to points per contest. While Evans averaged 15.0 last year, Deebo Samuel and Marquise Brown averaged 13.0. Those two wideouts tied for the WR28 spot in points per game.
So it wouldn’t take much for Evans to oscillate within, say, the WR15-WR30 range. A few more TDs than expected could push him into the top 20, or 10 fewer receptions than expected — and the resulting diminished yardage — could push him down to 30th.
Managers shouldn’t get hung up on these scenarios. The key is that Evans’ current market value is closer to his floor than his mid-range projections. That tells us that he’s a slight bargain at his current price and should be targeted after the top 24-26 WRs are off the board.