As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Chris Godwin’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Entering his seventh NFL season, Godwin has seen it all. In fact, his career can be broken down into three two-year chunks.
He toiled away in his first two seasons on 5-11 teams, seemingly on the cusp of a legitimate playoff push. During his next two seasons, Jameis Winston led the league in pass attempts and passing yards (2019) before ceding the offense to Tom Brady in 2020 — when the Bucs won the Super Bowl.
In his last two years, Brady led the league each season in (you guessed it) pass attempts. He also led the NFL in passing yards in 2021. It marked a tough time to be a Buccaneer wideout but a great time to be a fantasy Buccaneer wideout.
And now, Godwin will be part of yet another transition. The Bucs are no longer Super Bowl favorites. Not even close. The team is hoping to muster enough victories to prevail in a relatively winnable (for now) NFC South.
Godwin has had his share of injuries these past four years, including some quite serious. It’s culminated in 11 missed games since 2019. But when active and healthy, he’s an incredible talent. When capable quarterbacks are hurling the ball 38-42 times a game, he’ll be just fine.
But what happens when the QBs aren’t as capable? What happens when they don’t lead the league in throws?
That’s what we’re about to find out. Instead of distributing 4,700+ yards to its skill players, this year’s Bucs probably will distribute no more than 3,700 to 4,000. Scoring opportunities could decline. Candidly, this offense could struggle in ways Godwin hasn’t seen before.
The good news is that Godwin’s depth-chart status is assured. He and Mike Evans will continue to command a plurality of targets, while Trey Palmer might step into a No. 3 WR role. Cade Otton will continue to prove his worth.
The top heaviness of this receiving corps should sustain Godwin as a weekly fantasy starter. However, “fantasy starter” is relative. Whereas he’s averaged 70+ receiving yards per game in each of the last four years, 50-60 might be more realistic with a presumed QB downgrade and questionable backfield. Defenses will challenge the Bucs — and, by extension, Godwin — more than they’ve done in years.
He’ll get his points. It might not pretty. It might not make fantasy managers happy overall. But an 80-825-5 receiving line is realistic if he gets through 15+ contests.
Should You Draft Chris Godwin This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Godwin with an ADP of WR31. Our PFN Consensus Rankings list the veteran at WR25, which is a considerable gap. The big question is how much of a decline he’ll endure. I suspect 15-25% across the board (receptions, yards, and touchdowns).
Last year’s WR30 (Adam Thielen) finished with a 70-716-6 receiving line. In that context, Godwin could comfortably meet or exceed reduced market expectations. His floor probably can’t get much lower than the WR35 realm.
So despite the lack of near-elite upside we’re accustomed to seeing in Godwin, the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction. All told, he’s a great bet to exceed expectations.