As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
George Kittle’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Some players are blessed with physical durability. Others fight through injuries while trying to persevere. Kittle falls somewhere in between.
His uber upside hasn’t been in doubt since his second season in 2018, when he compiled a blistering 88-1,377-5 receiving line. For most of the year, his QBs oscillated between Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. So yeah, he shined in ways few other tight ends could have.
That said, he competed for targets alongside Dante Pettis, Trent Taylor, and a 32-year-old Pierre Garcon. Kendrick Bourne led all wideouts on the team with 42 catches for 487 yards. In summation, Kittle shined alongside a bottom-tier WR corps.
That turned out to be his best campaign, at least so far. And going on 30 years old, it’ll probably remain his pinnacle. He averaged 8.5 targets per game in 2018. In each successive year, his target average has shifted to 7.6 (2019), 7.9 (2020), 6.7 (2021), and a career-low 5.7 last season.
Along with nagging injuries that have sidelined him for at least two games in each of the last four years — and some games where he’s clearly been less than 100% — Kittle has remained an almost-elite fantasy tight end. Despite being No. 7 in TE receptions last year, he was No. 2 in TE touchdowns, which helped propel him to No. 2 in TE fantasy points per contest.
That marked a meaningful shift in Kittle’s statistical outputs, which historically have been yardage-heavy. Instead, touchdowns proved to be the difference for a boom/bust player who scored less than eight fantasy points seven times while clearing 20 points four times.
Regarding his durability, as a senior at Iowa in 2016, a foot injury sidelined Kittle for two games and limited him the rest of the year (five catches for 34 yards in three games post-injury). In the pros, he’s missed 15 of the Niners’ last 58 regular-season games (26%) with knee, calf, groin, and foot injuries. A 17-game Kittle would be wonderful for fantasy managers. But 14 or 15 games are far more realistic.
And back to targets. Was 2022 a fluke? Essentially, is 5.7 looks per game the new norm or even the new ceiling?
This is where things get a bit muddled. There’s no doubt that Kittle is still one of the Niners’ best weapons. But as alluded to above, he frequently took a backseat. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk remain offensive anchors.
Jauan Jennings isn’t going anywhere, and the young Danny Gray could take another step forward.
Then there’s rookie TE Cameron Latu. Apparently, San Francisco wasn’t satisfied with Ross Dwelley as the backup. Latu battled injuries at Alabama, which seemingly impacted his draft stock. But the Niners thought highly enough of him to snag the TE in the third round.
While he might need a year or two to acclimate to the NFL, he marks an immediate upgrade (in terms of ceiling) over Dwelley. And his presence might take some weight off of Kittle during the regular season.
So while only Travis Kelce racked up more fantasy points per game than Kittle did last year, San Francisco’s starting TE would need a lot of things to break right in 2023 to replicate those numbers — particularly his lofty TD total.
If he manages to start 15 games, Kittle could be looking at a more modest 55-675-6 line — great for most TEs, but not great for one of fantasy’s best tight ends.
Should You Draft George Kittle This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Kittle with an ADP of TE4. It should be expected after what we’ve witnessed over the years. Few tight ends possess his weekly ceiling. His dominance during last year’s fantasy playoffs remains front and center among managers who won or lost because of him.
And yet, he’s a higher-than-normal risk at that price point, despite his incredible track record. Injury risks aside, let’s touch on his 2022 inflated touchdown total. Six of those 11 scores came in the four games Samuel missed. A highly inexperienced QB leaned on his most experienced pass catcher, and it worked.
When everyone’s healthy, Kittle is a situational weapon. His floor remains impressive. The Niners assuredly won’t forget about him. But on a roster with McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, and others, his reduced target share last season made sense, and there are no signs of a sudden uptick.
Kittle is a “step-up-when-needed” guy at this point in his career. On the 4-12 49ers of 2018, he stepped up continually. We witnessed the same results when Samuel got hurt last year.
But in 2023, Kittle is a risky top-five TE. A top 6-8 finish is more realistic. Don’t get stuck in the past. Kittle has been a declining force for years, largely due to a much-improved offense that leans on him less and less. That trend should continue this season.