As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Warren’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Jaylen Warren’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
When Pittsburgh drafted Najee Harris in the opening round of the 2021 NFL Draft, its backfield appeared set for years. And when Harris compiled 1,667 total yards as a rookie, there was obviously no public outcry when the franchise opted not to add a running back in the 2022 NFL Draft.
But they still had a backfield hole to fill. During the 2021 campaign, three former fourth-rounders pushed for a handcuff role behind Harris. Kalen Ballage earned a measly 3.0 yards per carry on 12 rushing attempts. Benny Snell Jr. mustered only 2.7 ypc on 36 carries. And Anthony McFarland Jr. accrued only three yards on three carries.
The Steelers needed more. So they signed Jaylen Warren in 2022 as an undrafted free agent in the hope that the powerful runner could be at least a modest upgrade over their other backups.
As it turned out, Warren showed much more than that. At times, he even outplayed Harris.
While this isn’t quite a backfield battle, it’s at least intriguing from a fantasy perspective. Few running backs have netted as much volume in the past three years as Harris, who, including his senior season at Alabama, has averaged 21.0 touches per game during this stretch.
And while that might not be why he hasn’t cleared 3.9 yards per carry in either of his NFL campaigns, it probably hasn’t helped. Despite a near-elite broken-tackle rate, Harris is a volume-driven fantasy asset — a relatively inefficient runner whose value hinges on sustained monster usage.
This is where Warren comes in. Few experts — if any — predicted the kind of breakout numbers he exhibited last season. He even had 9+ touches six times, including in three of his last four outings. The Steelers clearly trust him not merely as a backup but as a 1B option behind Harris.
Additionally, Warren caught an impressive 28 of 33 targets. Not coincidentally, Harris’ receptions plummeted from the year before. Warren also averaged 4.9 yards per carry — more than one yard above Harris. In an apples-to-apples comparison, it’s easy to see why Warren deserves more looks in 2023.
But will Pittsburgh give him more touches? That’s the million-dollar fantasy question. Warren could be the next James Conner circa 2018 — a potentially throwaway fantasy draft pick with the skill set to dominate if given the chance.
Harris’ excessive volume these past three years is worth noting because, historically, such workloads correlate with high risks of regression and/or injuries. And if Harris misses time, Warren could become an instant weekly top-12 RB.
As a result, Warren possesses a broad range of fantasy outcomes, hinging largely on Harris’ durability and productivity. Entering his third season, Harris remains a centerpiece in this offense. But if he struggles in Year 3, he could cede even more work to Warren, giving the latter the potential for weekly fantasy startability.
Currently, Warren should be viewed as a solid bet to replicate last year’s numbers. And if he demonstrates comparable efficiency, he should earn at least a small bump. It doesn’t matter that Harris was a first-rounder while Warren was a mere UDFA. The fact is, both are good at football. And if Warren proves to be the most effective RB on the team, then he could make a huge Year 2 leap.
Should You Draft Jaylen Warren This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Warren with an ADP of RB44. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him in the RB46 spot.
This is why the Conner comparison is appropriate. In August 2018, Le’Veon Bell had an RB2 ADP on the assumption his holdout would be resolved. Conner, a second-year backup, was all the way back at RB57. He was an insurance policy that many believed wouldn’t be needed.
We know how that turned out. And no, there’s zero risk that Harris will hold out, obviously. But other comparisons hold. Bell was an overworked RB coming off a season where he netted only 4.0 ypc — his lowest mark since 2013.
Even if he had returned, he almost certainly wouldn’t have led the league in touches once again because the team had a capable complement in Conner.
Warren’s ADP and expert-consensus rankings appear to be too low. They assume Harris will start every game while Warren fights for scraps. And a quick glance at last year’s overall production reinforces this theory. After all, Warren finished as the overall RB47. So it seems pretty clear why his ADP and ECR essentially bookend last season’s results.
Still, that’s too simple an interpretation. It took time for Warren to get going as a rookie. He averaged only 3.7 fantasy points in his first seven contests. Then he averaged 7.5 in his final nine. That’s quite a jump.
So let’s not view his rookie campaign as a whole. Instead, if he picks up where he left off, Warren would have a floor at around RB50, with a realistic ceiling hovering near RB35. That makes him a buy. And what makes him a screaming buy is his handcuff role behind an inefficient, overworked starter. Warren needs only one or two starts to become an extraordinary bargain at his current market price.
Simply put, he needs to be drafted earlier than his ADP. The upside is too high to ignore.