Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was mired in a timeshare with Leonard Fournette last season. After the Bucs release Fournette and didn’t sign or draft anyone of relevance, White is poised for an increased role this season. What is his fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Rachaad White’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
There’s a lot of hype surrounding White this year. He’s a running back with an excellent pass-catching profile slated for a three-down role with minimal backfield competition. Many of you have probably already encountered some other article, podcast segment, or tweet telling you about how White is a must-draft this season.
Well, you’re not going to get that here.
We need an official term for whatever the opposite is of “my guys.” Because whatever that is, White is No. 1 on the list by a country mile. I want you to run as far away from White in 2023 fantasy drafts as you possibly can.
Last season, White opened as a pure backup, struggling to get on the field. This isn’t uncommon for rookies, especially late third-round picks. While he only averaged 8.2 PPR fantasy points per game, the real assessment of him should begin in Week 10, when White started for an injured Fournette and handled a season-high 22 carries.
White, known for his receiving profile, carried the ball 22 times for 105 yards in his first-ever start. He did not see a single target. It was curious usage, and perhaps some insight into how the team might use him if he were the lead back.
From that point forward, White was a relevant part of the offense as the clear RB1A behind Fournette’s 1B. For the remainder of the season, the two alternated entire drives.
So, what did two games as the feature back and five more in an even timeshare get White? Removing Week 18 since the Buccaneers pulled their starters in a meaningless game — 12.6 ppg.
On the season as a whole, White carried the ball 129 times for 481 yards, averaging a paltry 3.73 yards per carry. White’s 0.74 fantasy points per opportunity was 50th in the league, his 4.3 yards per touch was 48th, his 21.8% evaded tackles per touch rate was 36th, and just 3.1% of his carries went 15+ yards.
To be fair, the Bucs’ offensive line did White no favors, generating him just 1.5 yards before contact. But at just 2.54 yards created per touch, White wasn’t doing much on his own, either.
Both White and Fournette were two of the least efficient running backs in the NFL last season. Efficiency typically decreases with an increase in volume. Unless White takes a significant step forward in performance, he may very well be even less efficient with more work this season.
Should You Draft Rachaad White This Year?
The theory behind endorsing White is his elite receiving profile, elite speed, and potential three-down role. I’m here to throw cold water on all of that.
White’s college profile matters far less this season than it did last season. Why? We’ve seen him play in the NFL. NFL data > college data. White’s NFL performance, as detailed above, was very poor.
Then there’s the matter of his team situation. With nothing but Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and UDFA Sean Tucker behind him, White has arguably the least amount of competition for touches. But that doesn’t mean he’s going to excel with the touches he gets.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line is one of the worst in the league, checking in at No. 30 in PFN’s offensive line rankings. So, White may very well have to create his own yardage, which we know he can’t do, or rely on passing volume.
For the past three seasons, the Buccaneers have had Tom Brady at quarterback. As a result, they’ve been the single most pass-heavy offense over that span. Brady led the NFL in pass attempts each of the past two seasons, with a whopping 719 in 2021 and 733 in 2022.
The Bucs’ 26.8 seconds per snap in neutral game script last season was the fastest rate in the NFL. They ran the most plays and had a fifth-ranked 62% pass rate in neutral game script. It would be wholly absurd to project Tampa to throw anywhere near the same amount with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center.
Not only will the Bucs run fewer plays, but they’ll be less effective on offense as a whole. We got a glimpse of this last season as Tampa Bay, with a finally declining Brady, scored just 32 touchdowns.
Mayfield’s career-high in pass attempts per game is 33.75. Even if we bump that up to 36, we’re still looking at over 100 fewer pass attempts for the Buccaneers this season. And Mayfield’s career completion percentage is 5% lower than Brady’s was last season.
All of this is to say that Tampa Bay’s offense is going to play slower, run fewer plays, be less efficient, and score less than it did during the Brady era.
How exactly is White going to return any sort of meaningful fantasy value?
I give credit to fantasy managers for not propping him up too much. His RB30 ADP, No. 77 overall is far more reasonable than I thought it would be after the team cut Fournette. I’ve got White at RB29, which is actually ahead of consensus.
Even so, I don’t anticipate drafting White anywhere. Despite White’s ADP, there seems to always be someone who likes him more than me. So many fantasy analysts I follow and even respect are propping him up as a top target. I get it. I just don’t agree with it.
Every player becomes a value at a certain price. If he falls a couple of rounds below ADP, the opportunity cost decreases, and then he might be worth it.
Even if White is able to provide a positive return on investment, I struggle to see how it will be meaningful. If he averages 3.5 ypc on 250 carries while catching about 50 passes for around 300 yards, that’s 1,175 yards from scrimmage. Even with six touchdowns, we’re looking at 12.6 ppg — low RB2 numbers. And those projections are assuming a true three-down role.
Of course, White could have an outlier TD season. He could have an unexpected increase in efficiency. These things are all possible. But we have to focus on what is most likely.
The most likely outcome is White is the same player we saw last year on an overall slower and worse offense. If he ends up facing even a moderate increase in competition for touches, we could be looking at an RB who struggles to even reach 10 points per game.
I don’t see it with White, and don’t think he’s the Bucs’ long-term answer at running back. Therefore, I don’t want him in fantasy football in 2023.