The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Thielen find new life in Carolina, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Adam Thielen’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
A Minnesota native, the only thing Thielen has known is playing football up north. Rather than shoveling snow, Thielen will be applying sunscreen as he starts the new chapter of his career with the Panthers.
Unfortunately, it appears Father Time has caught up to Thielen, one of the more underrated receivers over the last few years. Averaging 8.5 points per game, Thielen caught 70 of his 107 targets for 716 yards and six touchdowns. While nowhere near his 24 total touchdowns in 2020 and 2021 combined, those six TDs at least elevated Thielen into the mid-WR3 territory.
Unfortunately, Thielen’s metrics as he joins Panthers aren’t the most promising. Not only did his target share drop, but Thielen saw a ball come his way on just 17.2% of his routes, which was outside the top 75.
His aDOT also plummeted to 9.9, and despite sitting fifth in red-zone targets (22), he was 74th in points per route run, 55th in points per target, 88th in yards per route run, and 79th in yards after the catch.
Truth be told, I don’t see the quarterback play getting any better, as Kirk Cousins is currently a better quarterback than No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. Although I am hopeful for what Young can do in the NFL, I don’t see him throwing for over 4,500 yards with 29 touchdowns this year.
Thielen will undoubtedly have his opportunity to earn priority targets in a wholly restructured passing room, lead by himself, DJ Chark, and rookie second-round pick Jonathan Mingo. Chark is coming off a 500-yard season where he appeared in 11 games for the Lions, whereas Mingo was drafted to be the future No. 1 option.
At 6’2″ and 220 pounds, Mingo not only has a size advantage but also ran a 4.46 40 and has all the upside in the world to produce once the chemistry clicks.
My concern, not just for Thielen but all of the pass catchers, is a reduction in volume compared to the league averages and also a relatively close pecking order where no one truly breaks away from the pack.
Of the three, Thielen does profile as the possession receiver but lacks the upside he saw in Minnesota, given the expected drop in red-zone targets. My initial projections have Thielen around 55-60 catches for 600-650 yards with four touchdowns as an upper-end WR5 for fantasy football.
Should You Draft Adam Thielen This Year?
I do think Carolina will look better this year. Granted, that’s not saying a lot. It’s a rebuilt offense with Young, Miles Sanders, Hayden Hurst, and all three receivers. Plus, Frank Reich joined the Panthers in the offseason following his unceremonious midseason exit from the Colts.
However, that doesn’t mean I think the Panthers will be a good team. They will likely have a top-10 draft pick again in 2024, and when you throw in a rookie quarterback with a new scheme, I have a hard time seeing how Carolina will have three fantasy-relevant receivers all year.
If I’m a manager looking at the Panther’s depth chart, Thielen has the least amount of upside compared to Chark and Mingo. Thielen’s primary value in Minnesota was not necessarily what he did between the 20s, but his touchdown upside, which made up for the lack of either volume or efficiency.
Without that happening in Carolina, I’m not sure a 33-year-old possession receiver will help your fantasy football team, especially when considering in some leagues, Thielen is being drafted ahead of Mingo and sometimes Chark.
Although the Thielen is going around the 11th and 12th rounds and won’t break the bank, I would rather spend a pick on someone with a vastly higher ceiling in their range of outcomes.
More than likely, Thielen is one of those picks that will either sit on someone’s bench all season or be dropped for either a priority waiver wire claim or a bye-week fill-in by Week 5. Let someone else draft him and target Mingo or Chark if you want a share of the Panthers’ passing game in 2023.