New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones took a step in the wrong direction following a solid rookie season. Jones enters the 2023 campaign as the Patriots’ clear starting quarterback, but there’s no guarantee he makes it through the season. What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Mac Jones’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
After leading the Patriots to the playoffs as a rookie, Jones was naturally expected to improve as a sophomore. Instead, he regressed.
As a rookie, Jones averaged 223.6 passing yards per game and threw for 22 touchdowns against 13 interceptions in 17 games. Last season, Jones averaged 214.1 passing yards per game and threw for 14 TDs against 11 INTs in 14 games.
At one point, Jones was playing so poorly that fans were openly calling for the team to start rookie Day 3 pick Bailey Zappe over him. And they did … briefly.
While the Patriots ultimately turned back to Jones, the mere fact that he was benched at all is a scathing indictment of his talent. Just one year after selecting Jones in the first round, the Patriots were already willing to see if they had something better. That does not bode well for Jones’ future prospects.
Through two seasons, Jones has yet to even show signs of being a fantasy QB2. He finished outside the top 24 as a rookie, averaging 14.0 fantasy points per game. That average dropped to 12.9 in Year 2, good for an overall QB27 finish.
Jones’ advanced metrics don’t point to a quarterback that’s horrendous, though. His 7.8 yards per attempt was 18th last season. His 39.1% deep-ball completion rate was 11th. His 66.7% play-action completion rate was ninth.
Should You Draft Mac Jones This Year?
We’re going to see a shift in fantasy football draft strategy this season, the likes of which we haven’t really seen since 2012. Elite quarterbacks are going to go, on average, earlier than they have at any point in the past decade. In most leagues, you won’t see Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts make it out of the third round. In some, they may start to go in the second.
Having an elite QB is more important now than it has been in a long time, possibly ever. The year-to-year consistency of the top guys staying at the top, combined with their weekly upside, makes them worth the early selections.
With that said, there are only three of them. Not every team can draft a quarterback early. A couple of teams will be forced to draft one later. If that ends up being you for whatever reason, Jones is not going to be the guy that bails you out.
It’s just difficult to envision Jones ever breaking out on the Patriots’ offense. While they did throw a respectable 56% of the time in a neutral game script last season, there’s still not enough passing volume.
The Patriots play very slowly. They average 29 seconds per snap in a neutral game script and ran just 56.7 plays per game, the seventh-fewest in the league.
Last year, Jones’ top receiving weapons were Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, and DeVante Parker. This season, the team downgraded at WR1 after allowing Meyers to walk and signing JuJu Smith-Schuster to replace him. Parker and Kendrick Bourne project to be the WR2 and WR3. Perhaps one of Hunter Henry or Mike Gesicki can step up, but any way you slice it, this is not a strong group of pass catchers.
Jones has a QB26 ADP, No. 185 overall. I have Jones ranked at QB29. In single-quarterback leagues, he is not going to be drafted. And there is no reason to draft or even consider him outside of Superflex.
