The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams’ 2023 fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Adams maintain his high level of success, given the changes on the roster, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Davante Adams’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
Despite the NFL being a “young man’s game,” Adams continues to hold off Father Time while putting up nearly unrivaled numbers for fantasy football.
Last season, Adams led all wide receivers in target share (32.6%) and finished fifth in air-yard share at 39.4%. Recording a career-high 180 targets, Adams caught 100 passes (seventh) for 1,516 yards (third) and 14 TDs (first) to finish as the WR3 overall and WR4 in points per game at 19.7 PPR.
It was the fourth time in the last five seasons he had finished with at least 100 receptions, 1,300 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns.
Adams was fourth in routes, fifth in red-zone targets, fourth in xFPTs, eighth in YPRR (2.59), and fourth in yards per team pass attempt (2.59) while sitting second in drops (nine). If the ball went his way, good things were bound to happen.
The concern many like myself had was not volume but efficiency in his first year without Aaron Rodgers, but elite talent translates, and Adams is more than just who his QB is under center. But can he sustain another change under center without impacting his fantasy value in 2023 with Jimmy Garoppolo?
Will Adams Once Again Prove To Be ‘QB-Proof’ This Season?
The change from Derek Carr to Garoppolo was less of an upgrade than it is a lateral move made following a fractured and unrepairable relationship, leaving Jimmy G the logical addition.
Last season, Carr saw a slight dip in some of his numbers, including a career-high interception rate at 2.8% and a completion rate of 60.8%, the lowest since his rookie year. He also averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, which was a five-year low.
Meanwhile, Garoppolo thrived in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and between Weeks 3 and 11, he was the QB11 overall and the QB12 in points per game at 17.1 PPR.
Sitting 16th in attempts at 246, Jimmy G completed 166 of his passes for 2,005 yards with 14 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Additionally, he added one TD on the ground with 24 yards on 15 carries.
But can he do that away from one of, if not the best, play-caller in the league and not surrounded by one of the best rosters in the NFL? If he can, Adams will be the reason why.
Initial projection runs have Adams once again in the elite territory, catching around 90 of his targets for 1,200-1,250 yards with 8-10 touchdowns in 2023.
Should You Draft Davante Adams This Year?
Although the questions surrounding Adams persist, fantasy football managers entering their drafts shouldn’t expect a discount in 2023, as Adams is one of the most expensive players in the game.
Based on the current ADP, Adams is currently being valued as the WR7 or WR8 with an ADP just inside the top 15. That places him at the beginning of the second round of 12-team formats. It’s almost identical to last year when Adams was the WR5 with an ADP of 12.7.
Although I have questions about the Raiders, as they will be one of the worst teams in the league this year and face a daunting schedule, Adams is being properly valued.
Anything in the WR7-WR11 range is perfectly acceptable for Adams, and he should be going in the same range as Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Garrett Wilson.
It’s somewhat personal preference, but my order would be: St. Brown, Diggs, Brown, Adams, Waddle, and Wilson in terms of both priority and upside, as I prefer their respective situations slightly differently. This is especially true for St. Brown, who is a dark horse candidate to finish the season as the overall WR1 for fantasy.
However, suppose Adams ends up being the cheapest of the group. In that case, he’s an incredible value, especially to managers looking to lock in as much volume as possible, as opportunities are how you score fantasy points.
I plan to walk out of a draft with at least one receiver from this group, and if that ends up being Adams, that’s a tremendous second-round selection to start your redraft roster off in the right direction.