Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has put together two really strong seasons to start his NFL career. However, he will never be his team’s WR1 as long as Tyreek Hill is around. What is Waddle’s 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Jaylen Waddle’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
One of my biggest failures last season was not being more in on Waddle. In general, drafting second and third-year wide receivers is good process. That’s especially so when we have strong evidence from their rookie seasons that they’re good at football.
As a rookie, Waddle undoubtedly proved he was good at football. Waddle caught 104 passes for 1,015 yards and 895 yards. He commanded a 24.8% target share.
The concern for Waddle entering his sophomore year was we knew he would be the WR2 with Hill in town. Waddle was never going to out-target Hill. While we like drafting second and third-year receivers, we also like drafting NFL teams’ WR1s, as that’s where most fantasy WR1s come from. Waddle was his team’s WR2.
Unsurprisingly, Waddle’s target share and total target count dropped considerably. His 21.6% target share was outside the top 30. After seeing 142 targets in 16 games as a rookie, Waddle saw just 116 in 17 games as a sophomore. Yet, Waddle’s PPR fantasy points per game dropped from 15.4 to just 15.2. How?
Efficiency.
As a rookie, Waddle was Jarvis Landry 2.0. He had a 6.3 average depth of target. Everything was underneath. He racked up receptions and not much else.
In Mike McDaniel’s more dynamic offense, and with Hill as more of the receptions guy, there was more space for Waddle to be used downfield. It made sense, given Waddle’s 4.32 speed.
As a result, Waddle’s efficiency skyrocketed. His aDOT improved to 12.1. He averaged 2.81 yards per route run, fourth in the league. And his 11.7 yards per target and 18.1 yards per reception led the NFL. It’s riskier to rely on efficiency for production, but Waddle’s efficiency was understandable and looks to be repeatable, at least to an extent.
Should You Draft Jaylen Waddle This Year?
No one is sleeping on Waddle this season. Last year, Waddle fell into the fifth or sixth round amidst volume concerns with Hill in town and concerns over Tua Tagovailoa’s ability to support two fantasy-relevant wide receivers. This season, the only real concern with Waddle is Tua’s health. That applies to Hill as well.
With Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ offense is a well-oiled machine. Their 59% neutral game script pass rate was the seventh-highest in the league. They had the 12th-fastest pace of play at 28 seconds per snap. And the offense pushes the ball downfield.
Tagovailoa was third in air yards per attempt at 9.3 and led the league in yards per attempt at 8.9. He just needs to stay healthy, which was a problem last season. If he gets hurt again, it will be a problem for his receivers.
Last season, Waddle averaged 16.9 ppg in his 13 games with Tagovailoa. In his four games without him, Waddle averaged just 10.6 ppg. That is the difference between Waddle being a low WR1 and a WR4.
Waddle is being drafted as if he will have his quarterback, as he should. His ADP is WR11, No. 22 overall. I am right in line with the consensus with Waddle as my WR12.
In the early rounds, I prefer to draft wide receivers that are their real-life team’s WR1s. But nothing is 100%. Every season, there are a couple of teams that produce two high-end fantasy wide receivers and at least a couple of NFL WR2s who are fantasy WR1s. Waddle has proven he can be one of them
The top 11 wide receivers in my rankings are all their NFL team’s WR1s. Waddle is the first WR2 on the list. We can’t predict injury, so we best not try. Assume Tua will be healthy and confidently draft Waddle if he’s the top player on your board when the time comes.
