Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins has been a popular breakout candidate since he was drafted in 2020. Now entering his fourth season, Dobbins is finally healthy with a chance to live up to expectations. Will he do it? What is Dobbins’ fantasy football projection for 2023?
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J.K. Dobbins’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
There’s no denying Dobbins’ talent as a runner. Although he’s been limited to just 23 games played over his first three seasons, Dobbins has averaged an impressive 5.9 yards per carry in those games.
Overall, Dobbins’ fantasy numbers look pedestrian. He averaged 11.2 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie and 10.2 ppg last season. We have to dig a little deeper to find out who Dobbins really is.
As a rookie, Dobbins didn’t really take over as the Ravens’ lead back until the second half of the season. From Week 11 on, Dobbins showed what his ceiling looks like. He averaged 17.0 ppg, never scoring below 13 fantasy points.
I’m not saying Dobbins will be a fantasy RB1 this season. I am merely pointing out what we know his ceiling to be. The question is whether he can reach it.
The Ravens remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Last season, they had a 50% neutral game script run rate. And that was a year in which they struggled offensively due to injuries at wide receiver and to Lamar Jackson.
While rushing volume won’t be an issue for the Ravens, it is for Dobbins himself. Dobbins has never seen more than 15 carries in a game. To be fair, the sample size is relatively small, given that he was a rookie in 2020 and coming off a devastating knee injury in 2022.
With that said, we can go all the way back to Mark Ingram in 2019 and see that the Ravens rarely give anyone more than 15 carries. Ingram had one game with 16 carries and one game with 19 carries in 2019. That’s it.
The reason this is important is it appears as though 13 carries is the magic number for Dobbins. Again, we have a small sample size, but I’m just telling you what the data shows.
In his 23 games, Dobbins has failed to reach 13 carries in 14 of them. In those contests, he averaged 7.0 ppg. Over the nine games in which he did reach 13 carries, he averaged 16.8 ppg. That’s a pretty stark contrast. Dobbins goes from a guy literally not worth rostering to a top-12 running back. So, do we think Dobbins can consistently reach 13 carries this season?
Should You Draft J.K. Dobbins This Year?
When it comes to draft strategy, we’re going to see a shift this year to wide receivers going early. We last saw this in 2016 when five of the first seven picks were WRs. If you go that route, you’ll need to find solid mid-round running backs to rely on. Could Dobbins be one of them?
Dobbins is still just 24 years old, and he has very little tread on his tires. The second year removed from ACL surgery is when we see running backs typically return to their pre-injury form.
We need to do a bit of projecting when it comes to Dobbins because at no point last season did the Ravens ever truly commit to him as their lead back. He never saw higher than a 50% snap share, something he did five times as a rookie. But wow, was Dobbins efficient when he touched the ball.
Dobbins averaged 5.7 yards per touch, ninth in the league. His 43.4% evaded tackles per touch rate was second. And 10.9% of his carries went for at least 15 yards, the third-highest rate in the NFL. If he did this in his first year back from injury on a depleted Ravens offense, we should be excited about this season.
The Ravens’ offensive line also helped Dobbins last season, generating 2.5 yards before contact, the third-most among backs with at least 50 carries.
There are a couple of concerns, though. First, Dobbins doesn’t catch passes. Statistically, he’s a quality pass catcher with a career 78.1% catch rate. Running quarterbacks just don’t throw to running backs. The Ravens targeted the position at a 13.5% clip last season, the third-lowest rate in the league.
That means Dobbins has to rely heavily on touchdowns. If he’s only catching a pass a game, at most, Dobbins is almost never going to so much as reach double-digit fantasy points unless he finds the end zone. The problem is he is going to share goal-line work not only with Jackson but with Gus Edwards as well.
Dobbins’ ADP is currently RB20, No. 49 overall. It’s a fair price, but also one in which the only realistic way Dobbins provides a positive return on investment is with an outlier touchdown season. Of course, that could happen.
I’m not saying I’m out on Dobbins. He’s my RB20, so I’m right with the consensus. It’s more that I’m not going out of my way to draft a timeshare RB who doesn’t catch passes and plays with a mobile QB.
If Dobbins is the best RB available at your pick, and you need a player at the position, by all means, push the button. Just understand Dobbins is more of a floor pick than a ceiling pick. He’s fine to draft, but he isn’t someone fantasy managers should necessarily aggressively target.
