The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Metcalf and Geno Smith stay hot this season, and should Metcalf be a player you draft this year?
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DK Metcalf’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Who would’ve thought all the Seahawks needed to do to get better was trade away Russell Wilson and sign Smith? What looked like it was going to be a down season turned into another productive year for Metcalf, and he’ll look to build on it in 2023.
After WR10 and WR23 finishes in points per game to start his career, Metcalf set new career highs in receptions (90) and targets (141) while recording 1,048 yards on the season. He was 18th in target share (25.5%), 10th in air-yard share (36.3%), and 34th in yards per route run.
As a supreme athlete, it’s no surprise Seattle also wanted to get him moving vertically as Metcalf finished 12th in deep targets and second in red-zone targets amongst receivers.
That last one is really crucial for Metcalf. After scoring 12 and 10 touchdowns in the previous two seasons, respectively, Metcalf only found the end zone six times in 2022, which caused his points per game to drop to 26th at 13.3 PPR.
Metcalf was also boom or bust as his production was fueled by three massive games, where he finished with at least 127 receiving yards as the WR7 or higher in weekly scoring. He could also have the bottom fall out, posting six weeks as the WR55 or lower last season.
If the touchdowns would’ve been there compared to normal, Metcalf would’ve likely averaged closer to 15 PPR per game as a more reliable, higher-end WR2. But touchdowns are one of the least sticky stats and can fluctuate massively.
That said, we will see some positive TD regression as Metcalf returns closer to his first two seasons in touchdown production. Unfortunately, this will likely come at the cost of a few targets, which will now go to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as Seattle finally has a slot receiver worth targeting.
My initial run of projections has Seattle looking very similar to last year in how they operate, but can Smith lead the entire league with a 69.8% completion percentage and place sixth in EPA+CPOE again in 2023? That’s the actual question and one that will have a serious impact on Metcalf.
As of now, my projections have Metcalf leading the Seahawks but slightly down on his overall stats from last year with approximately 120-125 targets, 75 receptions, 1,000-1,050 yards, and 7-8 touchdowns. I don’t see Metcalf returning to WR7 territory, but he should be in the WR2 range for fantasy football.
Should You Draft DK Metcalf This Year?
For the most part, we know the type of player Metcalf is and what he will do on the field when healthy. The more interesting conversation is whether you should draft him in 2023.
Based on early ADP reporting, Metcalf is coming off the board in the WR15 region with an ADP of around 30, which places him in the middle to back end of the third round. That’s high enough it makes me pause for concern.
The odds of Metcalf duplicating his 140 targets of last year, so long as Tyler Lockett stays healthy and with the addition of JSN, are rather low. When we look at the players around him, they are either more consistent or likely to have a better chance of finishing as a top-12 option.
That’s including someone like DeVonta Smith, who just had nearly 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns despite A.J. Brown having 1,500 and 11. There is also Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, and Jaylen Waddle, all in the same window as Metcalf. Odds are, they’ll probably be more consistent too.
Metcalf unquestionably has weeks where he can win you a matchup. Yet, even with career-high volume and in likely the best-flowing offense he has been as a third-year WR, Metcalf was replacement-level value.
I would rather draft Tyler Lockett as the WR32 and get him around pick 80. He’s the forgotten player in all of this, and he’s coming off another 1,000-yard season as the WR13 overall and 17th in points per game.
Seattle was also one of the losers of the 2023 schedule release. They travel further than anyone, have the earliest bye possible (Week 5), and with back-to-back Thursday Night games, will play three contests in 12 days. That’s setting up perfectly for a late-season fall-off when you need players the most.
I’m not going to say that you should outright fade Metcalf. He’s an elite athlete with the upside you look for in a player. I just feel that you’re paying a price that is still being inflated by his rookie year and not what his actual value is for your roster, which is that of a mid-to-lower-end WR2, not a top-12 receiver.
If his ADP holds, Metcalf will be a player I let someone else draft in my fantasy football leagues and never feel too upset about it.