New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is coming off a breakout year that saw him go from likely becoming a backup to solidifying himself as the Giants’ starting quarterback. Can Jones build on his QB1 finish? What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Daniel Jones’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
It was a surprise for many when Jones was the Giants’ starting quarterback last season. If you’re scoffing at that notion, it’s probably because you’ve forgotten how bad Jones was prior to 2022.
Over the first three years of his career, Jones had thrown for a total of 45 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. When you add in rushing, you get five more scores but a whopping 36 fumbles (just fumbles — not fumbles lost). Jones was a turnover machine.
Enter Brian Daboll. He came to the Giants with a clear objective when it came to his quarterback — stop the turnovers. To do that, Daboll heavily scaled back Jones’ pass attempts.
Jones averaged 34 pass attempts per game over his first three seasons. Last year, that number dropped to 29.5. Jones fumbled the ball just six times in 16 games, the lowest rate of his career. It’s even more impressive when you consider how much he upped his rushing last season compared to his first three years.
Jones averaged 7.5 carries a game for 44.25 yards. He scored seven times on the ground. Jones was giving fantasy managers just under five additional fantasy points per game in rushing alone.
Of course, it was the rushing that carried Jones’ fantasy value, as he wasn’t doing much passing. Jones averaged a career-low 200.3 passing yards per game. While his interception rate did drop to a minuscule 1.1%, he threw for just 3,205 yards and 15 touchdowns in 16 games.
Jones averaged 18.4 ppg, finishing as the overall QB10. What Daboll clearly impressed upon Jones was to keep the ball close to the line of scrimmage, take safe throws, and don’t turn it over. That, combined with Jones’ improved rushing prowess, created a fantasy QB1.
Should You Draft Daniel Jones This Year?
We are going to see a shift in fantasy football draft strategy this season, the likes of which we haven’t really seen since 2012. Elite quarterbacks are going to go, on average, earlier than they have at any point in the past decade. In most leagues, you won’t see Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts make it out of the third round. In some, they may start to go in the second.
Having an elite QB is more important now than it has been in a long time, possibly ever. The year-to-year consistency of the top guys staying at the top, combined with their weekly upside, makes them worth the early picks.
With that said, there are only three of them. Not every team can draft a quarterback early. And a couple of teams will be forced to draft one later. If that ends up being you for whatever reason, is Jones worthy of being your QB1?
The Giants can get away with pigeonholing Jones into being a game manager. They can win 9-10 games, make the playoffs, and maybe win a game like they did last season. But if they have championship aspirations, which, of course, they do, Jones needs to progress. That means more downfield passing.
Last season, Jones ranked 30th in deep-ball attempts with just 30 on the season. He completed them at a respectable 15th-ranked 36.7% rate, though. Jones needs more of that for the Giants to become a true contender. And I think they’re going to try.
Fantasy managers certainly want their quarterback taking downfield shots. The problem for Jones is who exactly is he throwing to? I can’t even list the Giants’ top five receivers because I have no idea who they will be.
This team currently rosters Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell, Darius Slayton, Jamison Crowder, Jalin Hyatt, Cole Beasley, Sterling Shepard, and Wan’Dale Robinson. Most of these receivers do the same thing. None of them profile as a team’s WR1. Perhaps Robinson or Hyatt project to be NFL WR2s eventually, but the reality is these guys are mostly WR3/4/5s.
The Giants did trade for tight end Darren Waller, who will serve as Jones’ top target. He’s probably a more reliable deep man than any of his receivers. But the fact remains Jones does not have much to work with in the passing game.
This presents a tricky situation for fantasy managers, as it is risky to expect Jones to run as much as he did last season. Even a moderate dip in rushing production would take Jones from a low QB1 to a mid QB2.
Furthermore, the Giants were a run-heavy team last season. They had a 51% neutral game script pass rate, which was the ninth-lowest in the league. Of course, a lot of that is due to Jones’ rushing, but in general, unless we’ve got true rushing quarterbacks, we want our QBs on teams that throw the ball.
The good news is Jones’ ADP is not reflective of any sort of improvement. He’s going as the QB14, No. 115 overall. I currently have Jones as my QB14. Sadly, I just don’t buy that he can make significant strides as a passer with the weapons, or lack thereof, around him.
Now, that’s not to say I think Jones will finish as the QB14. It’s more that there are a couple of quarterbacks you may typically see go after him that I believe have a higher and more plausible ceiling.
Ultimately, Jones is a fine fallback option if you wait on a quarterback to the point where some of your league mates already have two.
