As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Justin Jefferson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Of the Vikings’ 13 regular-season victories last season, 11 were by a touchdown or less. Jefferson averaged 24.4 fantasy points in those 11 contests.
Although he finished fifth in MVP voting (behind four quarterbacks), Jefferson arguably deserved to finish no worse than third. And a case could be made that no one — not even Patrick Mahomes — had a greater impact on Minnesota’s third-best regular season in its history.
Because if Jefferson had been forced to miss the entire year, the Vikes realistically could have finished 4-13. He commanded an incredible 29% target share, which he converted into 38% of his team’s receiving yards.
He worked for his production, too — arguably as much or more as any other wideout. He led all WRs with 624 yards after the catch. And he was only 23 years old.
Jefferson has the skill set, the quarterback, and the offensive role to be a perennial elite player on par with the all-time greats. And yes, he has the quarterback. For all his flaws, Kirk Cousins is a top-16 NFL QB. In a relatively top-heavy receiving corps, that and a subpar defense have helped ensure Jefferson is well-fed.
A big question this year concerns rookie Jordan Addison, who was taken with the No. 23 pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Jefferson was taken at No. 22 three years ago. While Addison lacks Jefferson’s size, he appears to be a clear upgrade over the aged Adam Thielen, whom the Vikes let go this offseason.
At the same time, Thielen was a monster inside the red zone for five straight seasons, with respect to elite per-game usage and efficiency. Presumably, Addison will not be able to fill that gap, at least not yet. Instead, Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson should collectively command a larger percentage of looks inside the 20 and likely inside the 10.
As a result, while it’s easier said than done, Jefferson’s TD total has a good chance of popping. He has “only” 25 career touchdowns on 476 targets. There’s room for growth here.
Jefferson led the league last year with 128 catches for 1,809 yards. Asking whether he can build on it is not the ideal question. Instead, how much risk is there for a meaningful regression? Whether he racks up 1,500 yards, 1,800, or 2,000, he’ll be elite. The only debate is whether he’ll be contemporarily elite or historically elite. Fantasy-wise, he’s still a no-brainer elite WR.
The better question is whether Cousins’ advancing age is a concern. Because, like most teams, Minnesota doesn’t have an adequate backup plan. Nick Mullens would be serviceable at best. Cousins is entering his age-35 campaign. He’s been highly durable. And yet, he endured a career-high 46 sacks last year.
Assuming a fairly healthy season for him and Jefferson, the latter is a good bet to hit 140-1,650-12. He’s the best young receiver in a league with a lot of great young receivers. And unlike some of them, he remains the unquestioned weekly alpha, which is exactly what managers want with their first WR pick.
Should You Draft Justin Jefferson This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Jefferson with an ADP of WR1. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him in the same spot. No surprises here. One would need to talk themselves out of rationality to push Jefferson down the list.
While Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, and even A.J. Brown could crack 1,500 yards this year, Jefferson combines the highest weekly floor with an elite ceiling.
Drafting Jefferson probably means securing him within the first eight picks of a one-QB league or the first 15 picks of a two-QB/Superflex league. The notion that he might still be getting better is alluring. Could he crack 2,000 yards? Absolutely, especially if Cousins’ career-high pass attempts in 2022 are a sign of things to come.
Some managers like to go RB-RB in one-QB leagues. Hey, whatever works. If you can pick the right RBs, you’ll be well on your way to a fantasy title.
Jefferson offers more stability. You’ll be a bit in the hole at RB. In leagues with larger benches, you can afford to stash a bunch of handcuffs and wait for one of those lottery tickets to pop.
But I’d advise against drafting Jefferson unless you have a pretty firm plan for the next several rounds. If you go WR-WR (e.g., Jefferson in the middle of the first and CeeDee Lamb in the middle of the second), do you know which back-end RB starters you’ll want to target in the third, fourth, and/or fifth rounds?
As long as you feel confident that you won’t get stuck in the middle rounds as the options get thinner, then Jefferson is a fantastic cornerstone to a championship-caliber fantasy team.