The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into New England Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson’s 2023 fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. With a backfield seemingly to himself, can Stevenson show his breakout was not a fluke, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Rhamondre Stevenson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
One thing I always try to be is transparent. I’ll never get everything right, but I try to at least learn from it. I’ve stated in the past that I was not overly enthusiastic about Stevenson when he came into the league. That was a swing and a miss, but the guy we’ve seen on the field is nothing like the player we saw in Oklahoma.
Although Stevenson averaged 9.6 points per game in his first season, it’s disingenuous to only look at his RB44 finish as he was playing second fiddle to Damien Harris.
Stevenson was on the field for over 50% of the snaps only three times, but in those contests, he scored 27.4, 7.8, and 22.7 fantasy points, respectively. Even his staunchest of defenders likely didn’t see what it was coming in 2022.
Simply put, Stevenson was tremendous and quickly dispatched Harris as the primary back. His 65% snap share on the season was 12th amongst running backs, and he posted 1,461 yards from scrimmage with six touchdowns.
The RB7 overall, Stevenson finished 11th in per-game scoring at 14.7 PPR due to the somewhat downward overall production at the position as a whole.
Despite not being the most athletic player on the field, Stevenson consistently found ways to win. His 3.43 yards per touch placed him inside the top 10. His 40% evaded tackles per touch rate were top three, plus he sat third in juke rate and 14th in YPRR.
Stevenson’s Passing Volume Keeps Him in Elite Fantasy Football Territory for 2023
What truly made Stevenson’s fantasy upside was the receiving volume. He commanded 17.3% of the targets, which was the fourth highest in the league amongst running backs (third in volume – 82).
He averaged 18.3 routes run per game and ran a route on 57.6% of the Patriots’ passing plays, the sixth most in the league. At times, Stevenson was as close to a true three-down back as you could find.
It’s worth noting that over the final two weeks when Harris was healthy, Stevenson played just 50% of the snaps and that could become an issue again now that Ezekiel Elliott has signed with New England.
New England, aside from the addition of Zeke, will look very similar to last year, which is a good thing for fantasy managers trying to project what the next season will hold. When it comes to Stevenson, you’re looking at a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2.
My initial baseline projections have Stevenson rushing around 185 times for roughly 800 yards with five rushing touchdowns. He also projects to haul in about 60 receptions for approximately 375 yards, with an additional one to two receiving touchdowns.
Whether you’re in half PPR or full PPR, where target share is a premium, Stevenson checks every box you’re looking for as a top 15 RB for your fantasy football roster in 2023.
Should You Draft Rhamondre Stevenson This Year?
Depending on the type of format you’re playing, you’ll either love or hate this section. If you play in a keeper format, you’re over the moon, since Stevenson was being drafted as the RB35 and had an ADP that placed him at the back end of the seventh round. It’s why nailing those upside mid-to-late-round selections means so much.
For the rest of us, well, as someone once said, yesterday’s price is not today’s price. Based on ADP reporting since Zeke signed, Stevenson is being drafted as roughly the RB14 and in a range placing him at the back end of Round 3 in 12-team PPR formats.
As I said, you’re either loving life because you get to keep Stevenson at the same cost, or just like everything else with inflation, you have to bite the bullet and decide if the value is worth it.
This year, I’ll likely be heavily targeting Stevenson in fantasy drafts. I prefer to go wide receiver heavy early on, and if I have an upper-half draft slot, a very realistic and repeatable draft strategy for me will be to grab one of Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, or Ja’Marr Chase in the first and then come back to pair Stevenson with them as my second RB.