The 2023 fantasy football season is back as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud’s 2023 fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. What are the expectations of Stroud in Year 1, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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C.J. Stroud’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
After initial speculation suggested that he could slip possibly outside the top 10, the former Ohio State QB heard his name called second overall by the Texans. Stroud now heads into 2023 looking to help turn around a franchise stuck at the conference’s basement.
Stroud is another example of why you can’t simply trust offseason reporting. This is when smokescreens and narratives are thrown out into the media to try to throw people off. Plus, it’s not as of Stroud was a questionable prospect by any means.
Having served as a backup his freshman year, Stroud started his final two seasons at Ohio State and immediately became one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. The 2021 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and two-time Heisman Trophy finalist averaged 324 yards passing per game and threw for 85 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions in his two years as a starter, with a 69.3% completion percentage.
Although Stroud isn’t a rushing-first style QB, he’s mobile enough to get around in the pocket and can scramble when needed. However, there are certainly questions about what type of playmaker he can be at the NFL level.
Similar to Bryce Young, Stroud can make every throw on the field. But the question is, can Stroud do that when the pocket gets dirty?
He appeared to be impacted by pressure more than some would like. And it’s not as if pressure isn’t going to be getting to him. The talent gap between Stroud’s OL and the defensive front has likely never been greater in his career when you consider the talent who played in Columbus.
That being said, no quarterback is perfect coming in, and of the three QBs drafted in the first round, Stroud is probably the safest bet to hit his median range of outcomes for his career.
Stroud’s Fantasy Upside Is Capped By His Current Situation in Houston
Unfortunately, for fantasy, at least in 2023, although Stroud is talented, he’s on one of the worst NFL teams. After all, after going 3-13-1 and firing their head coach, there’s a reason Houston had the No. 2 overall pick.
New head coach Demeco Ryans has praised Stroud for handling the pressure and responsibility of being a leader in training camps. Still, this is a roster devoid of talent, with a possible No. 1 receiver of Nico Collins, along with a mix of Robert Woods, John Metchie III, and Tank Dell.
Given the number of variables surrounding not just the landing spot but the player himself, Stroud’s projections will likely vary, and it will take a few weeks until we see what the Texans will look like in 2023.
Houston will likely need to throw the ball quite a bit this season as they trail in games, but potential struggles of sustaining long drives could lead to Stroud having a disappointing rookie season, which is not uncommon for first-year QBs.
Current projections have him slated for approximately 3,200-3,300 passing yards with 18-20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while rushing roughly 40-45 times for approximately 150-180 yards with a rushing score.
Should You Draft C.J. Stroud This Year?
Although this year’s rookie class is viewed more favorably at the QB position compared to last season, where Kenny Pickett was the only player drafted in the first round, that doesn’t mean managers will be overzealous during fantasy football drafts.
Stroud is currently being drafted as the QB26 with an ADP of 173. In 1QB formats, he will be going largely undrafted, and in Superflex formats he is on the verge of being taken as a QB2.
What I do find interesting is that of the three primary rookie quarterbacks, Stroud is consistently going as the QB3 of the 2023 rookie class behind Young — who usually is only one to two spots ahead of him — and Anthony Richardson, a fringe top-12 QB due to his expecting rushing proficiency and better landing spot in Indianapolis.
In 1QB fantasy football leagues, I won’t be drafting Stroud in 2023. There’s too much ambiguity in the situation with Houston. Given the fact that only 12 quarterbacks, on average, are started in fantasy on a given week, there are several other QBs with higher ceilings and higher floors.
When you can, draft players like Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, and Aaron Rodgers outside of the top 12. That’s an excellent example of how deep the position is.
In Superflex leagues, I’m okay walking out of a draft with Stroud as one of my quarterbacks. Ideally, though, he needs to be my QB3 so that he can develop on my bench. If he does surprise, similar to Justin Herbert in his rookie season, then you can plug Stroud in as a high-upside QB2. However, I wouldn’t bet the farm on this outcome, even though Houston might be better than we’re giving them credit in 2023.