As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Nick Chubb’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It’s hard to quantify Chubb’s impact on a franchise that’s enjoyed only one winning season during his five campaigns. But it’s fair to wonder if Cleveland’s recent relative resurgence would have been possible if they hadn’t landed him early in the second round of the 2018 Draft.
Nick Chubb responds with his own monster stiff arm!#C5MNF pic.twitter.com/J5DX7avNEH
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) January 4, 2022
This team will be forever connected to the late Jim Brown, who redefined the running back position while leading the NFL in rushing yards in eight of nine seasons. Leroy Kelly followed with three straight 1,100+ yard and 5.0+ yards-per-carry campaigns. Greg Pruitt and Michael Pruitt came close to replicating those runs in the 1970s and 1980s.
But from 1986 to 2015 — a span of 30 seasons — not one lead back for the Browns netted more than 4.4 ypc. Running games no longer flourished in Cleveland.
And so it’s no coincidence that, before Chubb joined the league, the Browns had won only one playoff game since 1990, which essentially had marked the end of their Bernie Kosar-Webster Slaughter-Ozzie Newsome offensive heyday. With a subpar passing game and subpar running game, they were toast … or rather, milk toast.
Chubb transformed this offense, and for five years, he’s been the anchor. Arguably no Browns RB since Jim Brown has been as dominant as Chubb, who’s earned an incredible five straight 5.0+ ypc seasons. Each year, he’s been among the league’s best in broken-tackle rate.
In 68 career starts, he’s rushed 1,176 times for 6,103 yards (5.2 ypc) and 46 touchdowns. He’s an old-style bell cow with virtually no sign of slowing down.
Nearly every player has a “however …,” and Chubb is no exception. His fantasy production gets dinged each year due to a lack of receptions. After racking up 12 rushing scores in his first 11 games last season, he had zero after Deshaun Watson took over at quarterback. And Chubb just endured the heaviest ground workload of his career (302 carries). How will the 27-year-old’s body respond?
Chubb’s ceiling is pretty much locked in. At his realistic best, he can hit a 300-1,500-10 rushing line in 2023 and a 25-250-2 receiving line. Essentially, he can replicate his 2022 numbers.
But exceed them? That’s a stretch, even for a guy as incredible as Chubb. He’ll need to be a primary option near the goal line, and he’ll need to sustain his extraordinary efficiency. Both are doable. Neither is close to guaranteed. 250-1,200-8 seems like a more realistic rushing line.
Should You Draft Nick Chubb This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Chubb with an ADP of RB4. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him in the RB5 spot. While both ADP and our expert rankings suggest a very high floor for Chubb, he would need to see a massive uptick in the passing game to compete for the RB1 title.
In other words, while Chubb is an entirely safe fantasy option when healthy, he’s a fringe first-round pick at best. On the field, few running backs have been better this century. He could become the first back to secure six 5.0+ ypc seasons in history.
But in fantasy, he needs touchdowns to be a reliable top-10 option. And there are warning signs that in a Watson-led offense, he might lose a meaningful share of goal-line work, culminating in a lower TD total and weaker fantasy production.
If he dips into the RB11-14 range, then he’ll be priced about right. But I don’t see that happening. He’s a fade at his current price points.