Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz has been a TE1 for two straight seasons. Can he continue to be a reliable fantasy tight end now that he is away from the Cowboys’ elite offense and playing in Houston? What is Schultz’s 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Dalton Schultz’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
When the Cowboys drafted Schultz in the fourth round of the 2018 draft, I doubt they expected he’d become their primary tight end. At that point, the Cowboys had Blake Jarwin and Geoff Swaim. In 2019, Jason Witten came out of retirement to play another season. All of that led to Schultz catching a total of 13 passes in 12 games over his first two seasons.
In 2020, Witten left for the Raiders, and Jarwin tore his ACL in the first game of the season. That thrust Schultz into an every-down role. He took that and ran.
From the moment he took over as the Cowboys’ TE1, Schultz has been a fantasy TE1. He averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game in 2020, 12.3 ppg in 2021, and 9.5 ppg in 2022. Schultz’s 2021 average was good for a top-five finish.
Before we go worrying about Schultz’s apparent step backward in 2022, we need to put it in proper context. Schultz sprained his PCL early in the season. Instead of sitting out a few weeks in a row to really rest, he tried to play through it. As a result, three of his first four games totaled a combined 1.8 fantasy points.
Once he was healthy around Week 7, Schultz averaged 11.6 ppg the rest of the way.
Schultz’s 18.7% target share was 10th in the league last year. He will need to maintain that level of volume to survive in Houston. It’s difficult to imagine Schultz ever being overly efficient. He’s an average athlete and certainly not a yards-after-catch playmaker.
Should You Draft Dalton Schultz This Year?
There’s no denying Schultz benefited from being the No. 2 option in the passing game on the Cowboys’ elite offense. Obviously, C.J. Stroud provides Houston with an upgrade on Davis Mills, but Stroud is a significant downgrade compared to Dak Prescott, especially as a rookie.
Unfortunately, we can’t really look at what the Texans did offensively and project anything forward. They have a new coaching staff and a new quarterback. What we can do is look at their wide receiver situation.
The Texans’ top three receivers are 31-year-old Robert Woods, Nico Collins, and John Metchie. Suffice it to say this is a very weak WR depth chart. It is not outside the realm of possibilities for Schultz to lead this team in targets.
Schultz has a realistic shot at seeing a 20% target share and over 100 targets this season, especially on a team likely to be trailing more than not.
The latter part is highly relevant as the Texans threw the ball 61% of the time last season, but that number dropped to 55% when in neutral game scripts. Even with a new coaching staff, I can’t imagine they want to be a pass-heavy team with weak wide receivers and a rookie quarterback.
Schultz will likely have a solid weekly floor but struggle to reach double digits without a touchdown. Of course, that’s pretty much every tight end not named Travis Kelce.
I currently have Schultz as my TE12, slightly ahead of his TE14 ADP, No. 132 overall. In 2023 fantasy drafts, if I don’t get Kelce, I’m just waiting on tight end. Given how late Schultz is going, he’s very much in play to be the tight end I draft.
Schultz is not about to blow the doors off fantasy and be a difference-maker. But at a weak position, he appears a bit undervalued, considering his floor is actually likely a little bit higher than his ADP. If you’re waiting on a tight end, Schultz is a fine option in the double-digit rounds.
