The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs’ fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Gibbs flourish despite the backfield competition for opportunities, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Jahmyr Gibbs’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
If you are here expecting me to talk down Gibbs’ hype train, sorry about your luck, but I am right there with everyone and have been for a few years.
Smooth is the best way to explain Gibbs as a rusher. Yet in an instant, he can hit someone with an electric cut. Gibbs did measure in a bit smaller at 5’9″ and 199 pounds, but if anyone thought he was 210+, you might need a new prescription. But I would not count out a bell-cow role for him in the NFL, as he is that good of a prospect.
What is not up for debate is Gibbs’ athleticism, with a 4.36 40 time and a 33.5″ vert. He’ll pull away from defenders and is a nightmare in open space. That more than translates, as he can maximize his per-touch upside, which will be massive in Detroit.
It’s clear Detroit loves him, and you can see it in the video from their draft room. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero stated the Lions “would’ve been comfortable taking him at No. 6. Instead, Brad Holmes traded back with AZ, added draft capital (including No. 34), and got Gibbs at 12.”
Gibbs’ Profile and Landing Spot Has Him Primed for Early Success
Detroit has a top-three-ranked offensive line and is the best pass-catching RB to enter the league since the 2017 class that included Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara. If anything, comps to Ekeler make more and more sense for Gibbs in how his role and trajectory can go in the NFL.
Gibbs will compete for reps with former Bears RB David Montgomery, but that isn’t a massive concern for me, as he will be a starting-caliber player regardless.
If we remember last year, despite how the season felt to many who rostered him, D’Andre Swift was fourth in fantasy points per touch — even with Jamaal Williams scoring 17 touchdowns — because he had 70 targets. Gibbs can get more out of each opportunity than he did.
Going back to the Ekeler comparison, a realistic projection for Gibbs is Ekeler’s 2019 season when he split the backfield with Melvin Gordon III. Due to his eight receiving touchdowns on 108 targets, Ekeler finished as the RB4 in PPR (19.3 PPR/g) despite Gordon III rushing 162 times while recording 55 targets on his own.
I will go slightly lower with my projections for Gibbs in 2023, with an initial baseline of around 170 rushes for 750 yards with six to seven touchdowns in a rushing split with Montgomery.
However, he should dominate the targets, catching around 50 to 55 of his 75 targets for 430 to 450 yards with three more scores, averaging around 14.3 PPR/g. That would have placed Gibbs as the RB13 in PPR last season. His floor is that of a mid-RB2 with the ceiling of a difference-making RB1 for fantasy in 2023. Detroit is for real, and so is Gibbs.
Should You Draft Jahmyr Gibbs This Year?
Unlike some rookies in this class, Gibbs will not come at a discount. Gibbs is currently coming off the boards as a top-15 RB in the back end of the third round in PPR formats.
That’s solid value for Gibbs, who has room in this ADP range to outperform it. But if it starts to creep into the RB1 range as a late second-rounder, then we might need to take a second to think about things as we are dealing with several unknowns, and that range is pushing Gibbs to the upper ends of his median range of outcomes.
If you are in a PPR format and go heavy WR, Gibbs makes a lot of sense, as his PPR upside will keep him a weekly factor in your starting lineup. Ideally, I would want Gibbs as an elite RB2, but even as an RB1 with a relatively quickly added RB2 before the RB dead zone, that would still be fantastic, as Gibbs will be a player you want on your roster.
Watch for Detroit and Gibbs to come out of the gates hot this year with favorable scoring matchups against the Chiefs, Seahawks, Packers, Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers to open the year.