Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff is coming off a solid high-QB2 performance last season. In one of the best offenses in the league, can Goff serve as a safety net for fantasy managers who don’t draft a quarterback early? What is Goff’s 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Jared Goff’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
After he was jettisoned by the Rams in favor of Matthew Stafford, Goff was mostly viewed as a product of Sean McVay. Many thought he was not Detroit’s long-term answer at quarterback, but two years later, the Lions appear committed to Goff as their franchise QB.
So, how did we get here? In his first season with the Lions, Goff was a big-time game manager. He averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt and 14.5 fantasy points per game. Goff protected the ball well, throwing eight interceptions, and completed 67.2% of his passes. He just didn’t really make any big plays.
In his second year with the team, the Lions let Goff loose a bit more. He averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, and his 44.4% deep-ball completion percentage was seventh in the league. While Goff struggled mightily under pressure (his 28.2% pressured completion percentage was 33rd in the league), he was top 12 in every other scenario.
Last season, Goff averaged 17.1 ppg, finishing as the overall QB14. He threw for 29 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Goff wasn’t winning any fantasy matchups, but he wasn’t losing any, either. He posted two absolute stinkers, but outside of those, Goff was over 14 fantasy points in 12 starts.
The Lions threw the ball at a 56% rate in neutral game script last season, which ranked right in the middle of the league. Given how effective Detroit’s offense was last season, it stands to reason they will throw at a similar pace.
Most encouragingly, though, is the speed at which they play. The Lions’ 26.8 seconds per snap in neutral game script was the sixth-fastest pace last season. More plays means more opportunities for fantasy points.
Should You Draft Jared Goff This Year?
We are going to see a shift in fantasy football draft strategy this season, the likes of which we haven’t really seen since 2012. Elite quarterbacks are going to go, on average, earlier than they have at any point in the past decade.
In most leagues, you won’t see Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts make it out of the third round. In some, they may start to go in the second.
Having an elite QB is more important now than it has been in a long time, possibly ever. The year-to-year consistency of the top guys staying at the top, combined with their weekly upside, makes them worth the early picks.
With that said, there are only three of them. Not every team can draft a quarterback early. And a couple of teams will be forced to draft one later. If that ends up being you for whatever reason, Goff is certainly a viable fallback option. He’s on a top offense and is a proven commodity that won’t cost you matchups.
We certainly would like to see the Lions get Goff more weapons than essentially just Amon-Ra St. Brown, but he did just fine relying almost exclusively on ARSB last season. Rookie receiving back Jahmyr Gibbs will help, though, and Jameson Williams will be back in Week 7. Don’t let the Lions’ supporting cast deter you.
Goff is incredibly cheap in drafts, especially relative to what he did in 2022. He’s got a QB17 ADP, No. 134 overall. He’s my QB17 as well, but it’s not because I actually think he will finish that low. Rather, Goff’s upside just isn’t as high as the guys ranked ahead of him.
There’s a chance Goff goes undrafted in some leagues. We often see only a handful of teams draft two quarterbacks, only for the others to end up picking up a second QB as the season progresses. If Goff isn’t drafted, he’ll be streamed relatively early, and someone will hang onto him through bye weeks.
I don’t typically advocate drafting two quarterbacks outside of deeper leagues, but if you take a risky starter like Russell Wilson or Anthony Richardson, make sure you have a viable alternative in Goff is not the worst idea.
