As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Travis Kelce’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
In his prime, Rob Gronkowski was the best fantasy tight end in history. He redefined the position, broke fantasy records, and became a popular early-round pick — something largely unheard of before he came along.
As one of his contemporaries, Kelce didn’t earn the same instant celebrity status. Not even close. Kelce caught his first NFL pass in his age-25 season, which is relatively late for any player, and even later for someone who would wind up becoming the greatest fantasy player at his position.
At a time when most TE careers have either slowed down or come to a grinding halt, Kelce has somehow bloomed. He’s supremely talented, catches passes thrown by one of the best quarterbacks ever, and operates in a perennially top-heavy aerial attack. It’s resulted in a perfect storm of fantasy success.
But Kelce has reached an age that fantasy managers must take into account. That doesn’t mean Kelce’s headed toward a decline in 2023, but it does mean time is running out. Because age waits for no one.
Kelce’s coming off an age-33 campaign when he enjoyed career highs in targets (152) and receptions (110). He enjoyed his best broken-tackle rate since this statistic started being tracked in 2018. He led the league with 29 red-zone targets and was second inside the 10-yard line (17 targets).
Meanwhile, one year after discarding their clear-cut No. 1 WR, the Chiefs still don’t have a replacement for Tyreek Hill. Their wideout corps remains a hodge-podge of largely unproven youngsters and boom-bust receivers. Kelce continues to stand out as Patrick Mahomes’ most battle-tested and capable pass catcher.
However, the all-world TE tallied his fewest yards per reception since 2015. His offensive snap share has declined each year these past five seasons — from 95% in 2018 to 80% last year. And in October, he’ll turn 34.
What does this mean? In all likelihood, Kansas City is trying to keep him fresher amidst the increasing wear and tear of a prolonged career. While this hasn’t yet impacted Kelce’s fantasy output, a continued decline would increase the odds of a statistical regression.
This doesn’t mean Kelce won’t put up career-high numbers in 2023. Most signs point to sustained elite production in an offense that can be slowed but realistically cannot be stopped.
That said, one should appreciate that Kelce’s target and reception highs last year cannot be easily duplicated. Even a 10% decline in targets could push his value one round later in fantasy drafts.
He’s the greatest ever and will continue to be the greatest ever until proven otherwise. And yet, each year, the odds of “proven otherwise” increase.
Should You Draft Travis Kelce This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Kelce with an ADP of TE1. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him in the same spot. No surprise, right?
Aside from Mark Andrews, there are no rivals for the No. 1 fantasy tight end. And Andrews operates in a less pass-friendly offense that’s about to become more crowded.
Kelce deserves to be on top because of everything you already know about him. While a regression is entirely possible (as highlighted above), there are no signs that he’s headed toward a fantasy cliff.
Realistically, only a significant injury could keep him out of the top five. But after missing only four games in nine years, his durability (at least for now) seems as secure as any tight end’s.
The key with Kelce is not whether he’s No. 1, but whether he should come off the board in the first, second, or third round of your league. In 1QB leagues, he’ll be a popular play in the opening round of fantasy drafts, and if he falls to the second, someone’s likely going to take him.
In 2QB and Superflex leagues, the calculus obviously changes. But after the early run on QBs, anything goes. If someone believes Kelce can hit 300+ points again, he’s a no-brainer value pick. He’s probably a 50/50 bet to hit that mark. So you have decent odds of netting a big win. Given Kelce’s uber-high floor, those aren’t bad odds.