The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Pickett show signs of progression and upside in Year 2, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Kenny Pickett’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
I warn people every single year that rookie quarterbacks, more times than not, will struggle. That’s even for the highly ranked ones, not just the ones people are lukewarm about, either. Completing 245 of his 389 passing attempts (+0.7% CPOE) for 2,404 yards during his rookie season, Pickett was rarely, if ever, a fantasy option.
With a 7:9 TD-to-INT ratio, Pickett failed to record a multi-passing touchdown game during his 12 starts but did add some value as a rusher with 237 yards and three scores on 55 carries.
The stats aren’t overly impressive, but I don’t believe anyone who is realistic about the situation thought Pickett would be an instant QB1. Sitting 33rd in points per game (12.1 PPR) while averaging 184.9 passing yards per contest and 6.2 yards per attempt (32nd), Pickett lacked a ceiling that would be fantasy-relevant in 1QB formats.
He was 22nd in EPA+CPOE, 23rd in deep attempts (41), 21st in air yards, 28th in points per dropback (0.38), and 32nd in clean pocket completion percentage.
As with many rookies, Pickett’s comfort in the offense and with the speed of the NFL game seemed to improve as the season progressed. After throwing eight interceptions in his first five games, Pickett only had one interception between Weeks 10-18 as the QB19 over this stretch.
Pickett also has some positive metrics, such as finishing ninth in deep-ball completion percentage (41.5%) and sixth in completion rate when under pressure.
Despite the Negative Perception Following His Season, Pickett Could Surprise in 2023
Pickett is the easy target of the fantasy community, given last year’s QB class. Once again, we must provide rookie/young quarterbacks the necessary time to develop before making overarching judgments about their trajectory. Were there mixed results? Absolutely. But 2023 should be a vastly improved season for Pickett.
Having gone through a full season and now getting to go through an entire offseason program with the team, I think Pickett will have a much better sophomore season, especially when we consider the upgrades on the offensive line with Isaac Seumalo, Nate Herbig, and first-round pick Broderick Jones.
Plus, they added Allen Robinson II to a pass-catching room consisting of George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, and Darnell Washington.
While I don’t think Pittsburgh is all of a sudden going to come out in some air raid system — after all, they opted to keep OC Matt Canada — the improved efficiency will incentivize the Steelers to put more faith in Pickett and bring more upside to what was a rather stagnant offense with a -3.6% passing rate over expectation and was 18th in pace of play and 19th in success rate.
With all this said, success for Pickett in the NFL doesn’t necessarily mean fantasy success. He’s not going to be a QB1 in 2023 unless he turns into Ben Roethlisberger all of a sudden. The city of Pittsburgh wouldn’t mind this, now that I think about it. Success means progress and winning games.
Pickett is a game manager right now, and when you can draft players like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and even Anthony Richardson, Pickett’s lack of upside compared to the league is rather apparent.
My early projections have Pickett throwing for around 3,600 to 3,900 yards with approximately 18 to 20 touchdowns, but touchdowns are a bit fluky to pin down. I would throw in about 300 rushing yards and roughly three scores for Pickett, who should move into the mid-QB2 range this year.
Should You Draft Kenny Pickett This Year?
When valuing a player, you have to look at not just how they fit on their team but in the grand scheme of the league. For Pickett, while I expect positive improvement, there are too many talented QBs with some combination of talent, volume, and upside that he can’t match.
Pittsburgh will not throw the ball 675 times as they did in 2018. That still would have only been third-highest behind the now twice-retired Tom Brady and Chargers QB Justin Herbert last year.
Pickett shouldn’t be drafted in a typical 1QB league with 10 to 12 teams, but I would keep him on the radar for streaming weeks if the matchup works. Barring some seismic shift in the landscape, Pickett doesn’t have a QB1 finish in his range of outcomes.
If you are in a Superflex league, Pickett does make more sense if you want to wait on your QB2, but he is preferably a QB3/insurance policy in your league to pair with two early quarterbacks. I prefer to have more potential upside in my starting quarterback spots whenever possible, as they have the highest ceiling of any position on your fantasy starting roster.