Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was one of the biggest busts in recent memory last season. As the consensus No. 1 overall pick, Taylor couldn’t stay on the field and didn’t produce when he did. With a new coaching staff and new quarterback, is JT poised for a rebound season? What is Taylor’s fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Update: The Indianapolis Colts have reportedly given Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade. If Taylor does get traded, we will update this article at that time.
8/29 Update: The Colts did not remove Taylor from the PUP list, meaning he will be out for at least the first four games. At this point, I do not believe Taylor is playing a snap for the Colts this season, and am operating based on that belief. This is purely my opinion on the situation, so take that for what it’s worth.
A trade is still possible, though. If Taylor gets moved, then the presumption should be that he will play. However, all we can do is make decisions based on the information we currently have. The Colts look to be playing hardball with their superstar RB. I dropped him to RB31, but if we’re being candid, he’s just off my board entirely.
Jonathan Taylor’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Taylor burst onto the scene as a rookie, immediately establishing himself as an RB1. In 2020, Taylor averaged an impressive 5.0 yards per carry and 16.9 PPR fantasy points per game.
As a result, it wasn’t a complete surprise when he finished 2021 as the overall RB1, totaling over 2,100 yards from scrimmage, 20 touchdowns, and averaging 21.9 ppg.
Here’s the thing about Taylor’s overall RB1 finish in 2021, though — it was one of the lowest overall RB1 averages in history. Should that have given fantasy managers pause over making Taylor the consensus top pick in 2022 fantasy drafts? Maybe? But surely no one expected the disaster that was Taylor’s 2022 campaign.
Last season, Taylor’s yards per carry dropped to 4.5. He scored just four touchdowns. And he averaged a mere 13.3 ppg, finishing as the overall RB17.
The bigger story was Taylor’s ankle sprain, which lingered throughout the season, causing him to miss a total of six games, including the final three (but really the final four).
After posting 10 weeks of 20+ fantasy points (counting a 19.7 week) in 2021, Taylor got there just twice in his 11 games in 2022.
Statistically, Taylor’s efficiency cratered. After finishing inside the top three in yards per touch, yards created per touch, and evaded tackles per touch in 2021, Taylor was 37th, 40th, and 27th in those categories, respectively, in 2022.
You can’t really blame the offensive line, either. Taylor averaged 2.2 yards before contact in 2021. That dropped a mere 0.2 in 2022 — a negligible difference. Simply put, Taylor played poorly (and was injured). So, the all-important question entering the 2023 season is whether Taylor can bounce back.
Should You Draft Jonathan Taylor This Year?
When it comes to draft strategy, we are going to see a shift this year to wide receivers going early. We last saw this in 2016 when five of the first seven picks were WRs. But the most valuable asset in fantasy football remains the elite running back. Taylor was that guy in 2021. Can he be that guy again in 2023?
It’s hard to imagine Taylor’s talent just disappeared. He’s only 24 years old, and he did look like himself during the brief spurts where he was healthy last season.
Fantasy managers should expect Taylor to once again dominate carries on what should be a run-heavy offense. While the Colts did have a 58% neutral game script pass rate last season, they also mostly had statues at quarterback in Matt Ryan and Nick Foles. With the very mobile Anthony Richardson under center this season, expect a whole lot more running.
While Richardson’s threat as a rusher should help open up lanes for Taylor, it also creates a problem for Taylor’s receiving upside. Taylor’s target share has consistently been a little under 11% in the past two seasons.
We know rushing quarterbacks check down to their running backs less. Therefore, Taylor could see that target share drop considerably, perhaps to 7-8%. And that 7-8% would be of a much smaller pie. Richardson is not attempting anywhere near the 604 passes the Colts threw last season.
Additionally, we have the inherent concerns that come with an offense led by a raw rookie quarterback. What if they don’t score as much? Running backs who aren’t prolific in the passing game rely heavily on touchdowns.
Richardson presents two problems in that area. First, the offense might not be that good. Second, Richardson himself is going to steal a few scores from Taylor.
I know I’ve painted a somewhat ominous picture of Taylor’s 2023 season. Even so, Taylor is not someone fantasy managers should necessarily avoid. I fully believe in the talent and am more bullish on Richardson being an upgrade on the Colts’ offense as a whole compared to the disaster that was Ryan, Foles, and Sam Ehlinger last season.
With that said, I remain a bit lower on Taylor than consensus. Taylor has an RB4 ADP, No. 13 overall. The range in which he is drafted is fine, but I’ve got him at RB7, which is a pretty significant difference this early in drafts.
Ultimately, I trust the receiving roles and offensive situations of Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard more than Taylor. That may put me in the minority, but I will take those three backs ahead of JT.
Furthermore, we have the added concern of Taylor’s crumbling relationship with the Colts, as well as his lingering ankle issue. Now, I’m not sure how much of Taylor’s ankle injury is just him not wanting to participate without a new contract. There’s no way we can know what’s going on in Taylor’s head or how serious he is about potentially sitting out the season.
If you want to rank Taylor as high as RB3, I completely understand. He’s just a year removed from being the best running back in fantasy. But there are just way too many red flags surrounding Taylor this season.
If he resolves things with the Colts, I’ve still got him as more of a mid-second-round pick than a guy going at the 1/2 turn. And if he doesn’t before I draft, I wouldn’t take him unless he fell into the second half of the third round.