The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields’ fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Fields be the next elite QB in fantasy football, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Justin Fields’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
Fields appears to be one of the slightly more controversial quarterbacks in fantasy football, but I don’t think he should be. It feels like there are two lines of thinking.
One says Fields is a mediocre passer, who is only fantasy viable because of his rushing upside, and the leap he would need to make in 2023 is not feasible. Then there’s the other camp that says Fields is this year’s Jalen Hurts.
I can see both sides of the argument, but I am much more of the opinion that Fields is about to take his game to an entirely different level and reach the upper echelon of the position. I understand he only topped 200 passing yards twice last year, but when you have over 1,100 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, I want you on my fantasy team.
It is more nuanced than that, however. Fields averaged 149.5 passing yards per game and completed 192 of 318 attempts for 2,242 yards with 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His 55 sacks were tied for the most in the league along with Russell Wilson, but as noted earlier, as a rusher, I don’t think there is anyone better than Fields.
Rushing 160 times on the year (second), Fields totaled 1,143 yards and eight scores, which helped him finish as the QB6 overall and QB5 in points per game at 20.5 PPR. After an initially slow first four weeks, Fields finished as a top-10 QB in nine of his 10 games through the rest of the season.
From Week 5 onward, Fields was the QB3 behind only Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts while averaging 24.1 PPR/g. His lone finish outside the top 12 came in Week 16 against Buffalo. Fields also missed Week 12 against the Jets and Week 18 against Minnesota due to injury.
Chicago Prioritized Surrounding Fields With Talent This Offseason
Fields faced an uphill battle every game as he played behind one of the worst offensive lines and had arguably the worst wide receiver group in the league. What did Chicago do?
They bolstered their offensive line during the draft and traded for wide receiver DJ Moore to pair with Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and rookie Tyler Scott. Chicago also brought in RB Roschon Johnson, who is a capable receiving back.
That said, Fields’ passing upside is slightly hampered by an offense that was 31st in passing rate over expectation, so we need to see Chicago attempt to throw the ball more. Does Fields have a way to go as a passer? Yeah, absolutely. He was 32nd in true completion percentage, 30th in passer rating, 17th in QBR, 20th in EPA, 27th in clean pocket percentage, and 24th when pressured.
Like Hurts, Fields is one of those QBs you will have to buy into before you see the product on the field. His ADP is at a point where you’re not able to wait and take them as a late-round value, especially not after what he did last year on the ground.
While my projections won’t have him hitting the 4,000-yard mark, the initial run has Fields around the 3,500-yard passing mark with 21 touchdowns to 13 interceptions.
Despite more passing volume, don’t expect the rushing to go away, with Fields rushing 140 to 150 times for 950+ yards and six touchdowns. That type of volume as a rusher will nearly guarantee Fields a QB1 finish for fantasy in 2023.
Should You Draft Justin Fields This Year?
Waiting to draft a quarterback was always my philosophy playing fantasy. With most 1QB leagues featuring 10 to 12 managers, there’s always a supply of high-end QB2s that you can stream in the right matchup and walk away with a top-10 finish. But having an elite quarterback can be a difference-maker, as we’ve seen in recent years.
As a whole, we tend to undervalue quarterbacks a little bit in 1QB leagues. Now, I’m not saying go out and spend second- or third-round draft capital on Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Hurts.
But don’t be afraid to be aggressive and take the quarterback with upside; you don’t want your team at the end of the year to be hamstrung by mediocre QB play. This can be a position that gives you an advantage.
So long as the rushing volume is there in 2023, which there are zero reasons to expect otherwise, Fields should be a top-five quarterback for fantasy this season. He should be in the same range as Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert.
Fields is someone I feel confident in, and I will aggressively draft him across my various fantasy football leagues this season.