The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Cleveland Browns WR Amari Cooper’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Cooper and the Browns’ passing game find more success in 2023, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Amari Cooper’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
While it might feel like Cooper has been in the NFL for 20 years, he is playing some of the best ball of his career, even as he enters his age-29 season. His route running is top-notch.
He can separate, win at all three levels, and is a critical red-zone target. But like nearly all receivers, Cooper is reliant on QB play. That’s what let him down in his first year with the Browns.
Cooper dominated the passing game for the Browns in 2022, recording a team-high 132 targets for the 12th-highest target share in the league at 25.6%, with the sixth-highest air-yard share at 38.4%. He set a career-high with nine touchdowns on 78 receptions with 1,160 yards as the overall WR10 while averaging 15.0 PPR/g (16th).
Cooper was also 12th in red-zone and deep targets, 17th in aDOT (13.4), 15th in YPRR (2.30), No. 8 in EPA, and 17th in fantasy points per route (0.49).
What is interesting is the season split, as Cooper was statistically better with Jacoby Brissett. In his 10 games with Brissett under center, Cooper averaged 8.7 targets, 5.4 receptions, 77.5 yards, 0.7 touchdowns, and 16.1 PPR/g (14th) as the WR8. With Deshaun Watson at the helm, Cooper’s numbers dropped to 6.5 targets, 3.5 receptions, 61.3 yards, 0.3 TDs, and 12.5 PPR/g (28th).
This is not me saying Brissett is better than Watson by any means. Watson was just rusty. He was 33rd of 40 qualified QBs in CPOE+EPA, behind the likes of Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson.
With a full offseason under his belt, the Watson-to-Cooper dynamic should be far closer to the expectations we had last season.
That said, Cooper does have more competition for those precious targets this year. Cleveland traded with the New York Jets for Elijah Moore. Plus, the Browns drafted Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman with the No. 74 overall pick. To me, this is a competition for the WR2/3 roles, as Cooper’s job is going nowhere.
That said, Cooper’s overall target share is likely to drop a shade in 2023. However, this should be offset by increased per-target efficiency from Watson. Assuming Cooper can hold off father time for at least one more season, he should stay comfortably in the WR2 range with a median projection placing him around 125 targets with 75 to 80 receptions, around 1,050 yards, and eight touchdowns (13.5 PPR/game).
Should You Draft Amari Cooper This Year?
No one in your draft, unless you are drafting in Cleveland, is going to give you a big reaction over drafting Cooper. More times than not, it feels like managers draft him because he is there, not because they are targeting him.
But that might be flawed thinking. Yes, we knew it would be a struggle as Watson was facing a suspension last year, and the uncontested target share would be muted due to the QB play.
That should be cleared up now, but Cooper’s upside will be directly tied to the offense now that there are more mouths to feed at receiver, plus TE David Njoku.
Remember, Cleveland’s -7.6% passing rate over expectation was the fifth lowest in the league, and as a team, they were under center more than most, with 48% of their first downs being in single-back formation (fifth highest). That should change in 2023, as Watson’s strengths as a QB have come when he is getting out of the pocket or in play action.
Even though Cooper will have extra competition, being able to take advantage of Watson’s skill set for an entire year is massive, especially on deeper targets. Cooper, for where he is being drafted (mid-fourth round), is in the right spot.
That insulates him a bit from needing to overproduce but allows him to give some additional value as a WR2 or WR3 for your roster.
There are players with higher ceilings, but players like Cooper, who have ith steady floors, are needed for any well-constructed roster. As long as Watson can return to some sembalnce of his former self at quarterback, Cooper should be able to turn in another WR2 campaign.