Tennessee Titans wide receiver Treylon Burks is coming off a disappointing rookie season. While he showed flashes, his production was not where we want it to be. With the Titans lacking at wide receiver, is Burks set to dominate targets this season? What is his fantasy football projection?
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Treylon Burks’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
It wasn’t the rookie season Burks or his fantasy managers wanted. Not every first-round rookie has to be Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, but Burks caught just 33 passes for 444 yards and one touchdown. His failure to reach 500 yards is a foreboding sign of his future success.
Burks supporters will be quick to point out that he only played in 11 games. Unfortunately, the threshold doesn’t care about games played. The simple fact remains Burks’ receiving yardage total suggests he will never provide sustained WR1 or WR2 fantasy value.
So, can Burks be the exception? After all, he’s still only 23 years old. And it’s not as if there aren’t positives on his profile.
Burks is 6’2″, 224 pounds. He has an 86th-percentile speed score and had a respectable 23.1% targets-per-route-run rate last season, which was 31st in the league.
A big part of Burks’ appeal was his status as the clear WR1 on a team with no real competition for targets. Heading into the offseason, the guys behind Burks were Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips, and Chris Moore. His biggest competition for targets was slated to be tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo.
The Titans have since brought in DeAndre Hopkins, who will immediately take his rightful place as the team’s WR1 and top target earner.
Burks should still see his 17.6% target share increase, but it won’t be nearly as much as it would’ve been had the team not signed Hopkins. As the WR2 on a low-volume passing offense, Burks becomes far less exciting.
Since Derrick Henry truly became the king in 2019, the Titans have a 49% neutral-game-script-run rate. Only the Ravens run the ball more, and that’s because their quarterback is Lamar Jackson.
As if that isn’t bad enough, the Titans also ran just 55 plays per game, tied for the lowest rate in the league. On a play-to-play basis, they also play slowly. Their 28.8 seconds per snap last season was the seventh-slowest pace of play in the league.
The Titans attempted 456 passes last season. Even if Burks were able to command a 20% target share, which is no guarantee, that would’ve been just 91 targets.
Not all target shares are created equal. For comparison purposes, a 25% target share in Tennessee is only marginally better than a 15% target share on the Chargers.
To make matters worse, the Titans are projected to be a bad team this year. We’ve already seen reports that if they struggle early, Ryan Tannehill could be benched for rookie Will Levis. While I’m no Tannehill fan, in general, rookie quarterbacks are worse for wide receivers than even weak veteran starters.
All of this is to say there are many reasons to be trepidatious about Burks this year and seldom few to be excited.
Should You Draft Treylon Burks This Year?
You can see where I’m headed with this. Burks was already a polarizing prospect entering the league. While he has first-round draft capital, that doesn’t make him immune to statistical thresholds and poor team situations. Both are not in Burks’ favor.
With that said, Burks’ ADP is quite reasonable. He’s currently going as the WR41, No. 103 overall. I was already low on Burks before Hopkins joined the fray, so I didn’t drop him too much afterward.
However, the added wrinkle of Burks’ training camp LCL sprain forced me to drop Burks even further.
While Burks undoubtedly avoided the worst, which would’ve been a torn ACL, he is still slated to miss around 3-6 weeks, which would cost him the first couple of weeks of the season. I now have Burks at WR46.
I would stop short of saying Burks is a player I’m completely avoiding at all costs. In general, you should be willing to draft just about any player if the price is right. It’s exceedingly rare we get a player like, for example, 2022 Kenny Golladay, who quite literally should not have even been on draft boards.
If Burks falls a round or two below ADP, I’d certainly be open to taking the shot. He’s just not someone fantasy managers should prioritize drafting or aggressively target.
The issue with drafting Burks, even as a WR4, is the upside just doesn’t appear to be there. I struggle to envision a scenario where he’s anything more than a high WR3, at best. While that would be a positive return on investment, there’s more upside to chase in the sixth or seventh round, particularly at other positions.