The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Minnesota Vikings T.J. Hockenson’s 2023 fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving value on draft day. Can Hockenson push for a top-two finish in 2023, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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T.J. Hockenson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The tight end position for fantasy football is the hardest to find consistent weekly production. Outside of Travis Kelce, everyone else can be hit or miss on a given week, including Hockenson.
Truth be told, I still catch myself saying Detroit Lions rather than Vikings, as that mid-season trade still surprises me. Drafted by the Lions in 2019, Hockenson was a solid performer and was off to a decent start in 2022. In his seven games with the Lions, Hockenson caught 26 of 43 targets for 395 yards and three touchdowns as the TE5 overall and TE3 in points per game at 12.4 PPR.
Yet, Detroit made a rare in-division trade with Minnesota, and in his new home, Hockenson flourished. In his 10 games, including a minimal workload in Week 18, Hockenson saw 86 targets, recording 60 receptions for 519 yards and three touchdowns.
Including a 13 of 16 for 109 yards and two-touchdown performance in Week 16, Hockenson’s splits with Minnesota were nearly identical with Detroit as he finished as the TE3 overall and third in points per game at 12.8 PPR.
His pace was ridiculous, as Hockenson was on pace for 161 targets and 111 receptions between Weeks 9-17.
From a utilization and efficiency standpoint, he was among the elite with a top-five target share (20.5%) and snap share while sitting second in targets (129) and routes (542), posting the third-highest amount of air yards (985) and red-zone targets (19), and also finishing fifth in deep targets (10), fourth in yards after the catch, and third in expected fantasy points per game.
Yet, unlike Kelce and even Mark Andrews, Hockenson will never be the No. 1 target on his team when everyone is healthy. That’s going to Justin Jefferson and, eventually, Jordan Addison when he finally catches on.
Still, in 2023, I would give Hockenson the edge regarding receptions and likely volume. However, Addison’s workload will only increase as the season progresses.
My initial fantasy projections for Hockenson have him finishing as the TE3 again, with around 80-85 receptions for 850-900 yards with six touchdowns as an integral part of a dynamic and dangerous Vikings offense looking to take the NFC North crown.
Should You Draft T.J. Hockenson This Year?
Unless you have a top-five pick and can draft Kelce, the best a manager can do in fantasy football drafts is to try to close the gap.
It’s Kelce and then everyone else. His 316.3 PPR points were over 100 points ahead of Hockenson in second place. Along with George Kittle at 200.5 PPR, they were the only three who scored above 200 fantasy points, and it wasn’t even close between the three.
With Kelce a locked-in first-rounder and Andrews projected to go in the second, I expect Hockenson and Kittle to come off the board at roughly the back of the third and into the fourth round, which will match what we saw last year.
Depending on your thoughts of the 49ers’ quarterback situation, Kittle ending the year on fire could be enough to push him as the TE3 and flip-flop with Hockenson.
I won’t fault any manager going down this path. While I’ll likely still go with Hockenson over Kittle, they’ll both be a good value based on their projected ADP. However, it’s unrealistic to expect either Hockenson, Kittle, or even Dallas Goedert to jump either Andrews or Kelce, barring some significant injury.
Hockenson will have a higher volume level and consistency compared to other mid-TE1s, which will give you an advantage if you draft him for your fantasy football team in 2023.