As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are James Conner’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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James Conner’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
A couple of years ago, the Arizona Cardinals were the last undefeated team in the league. Their backfield included a strong tandem of Conner and Chase Edmonds, while potential 2020 seventh-round steal Eno Benjamin loomed.
Then in early 2022, Edmonds left for Miami, and the Cards invested $13.5 million guaranteed in Conner. Benjamin was gone by November, leaving Conner as the backfield centerpiece of a team that no longer had the luxury of depth.
At its core, this is the fantasy appeal of Conner, who’s been riddled with injuries since entering the league in 2017. As long as he’s starting, he’s useful. And as long as his offense is good enough to give him plenty of goal-line opportunities, he’s very useful, especially in a league with so many split backfields.
However, Kyler Murray is still recovering from last year’s season-ending injury, and his return date remains up in the air. A Colt McCoy-led offense cannot be expected to give Conner as many goal-line looks. Twenty-one of Conner’s last 34 touchdowns (62%), spanning the last three seasons, have come inside the opposing 5-yard line. That’s his bread and butter.
Conner lacks the durability and efficiency to carry a subpar offense. While he’s long been an above-average threat in the passing game, he dropped seven of 58 targets last year — an extraordinarily high clip for an RB who’s normally the beneficiary of high-probability quick outs and checkdowns.
Perhaps more concerningly, he endured a career-low 1.8 yards after contact in 2022. Normally among the league’s best in breaking tackles, Conner averaged an abysmal one broken tackle per 36.6 touches.
And all this despite tying his career high with an average of 2.4 yards before contact. In other words, he had space to push forward but frequently struggled to shake off defenders.
Those who draft Conner surely recognize the risks. He’s a good bet to miss at least three contests. He might operate for part of the season in one of the league’s worst offenses. And physically, he might be on the decline.
On the plus side, the Cards will probably wait until 2024 to find their next No. 1 RB, giving Conner one more year to extend his career. This should result in a solid 15+ touches per game, and if things break right, a few of those will be relatively high-yielding receptions. That should generate a decent fantasy floor.
But we might also expect the Cardinals to look to the future by December, assuming they’re not playoff bound. That might result in Keaontay Ingram getting more looks, or the team might take on a reclamation project or sign a former XFL or USFL starter.
So enjoy Conner whenever he takes the field as the starter. Unfortunately, he’s a poor bet to play more than 13 games, and he’s a comparably poor bet to score 10+ times. This will make him one of the most TD-dependent starting RBs in fantasy.
Should You Draft James Conner This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Conner with an ADP of RB26. Our PFN Consensus Rankings list him at RB26, too. These are reasonable projections for a starting running back who probably won’t top 18 fantasy points more than once all year.
Basically, he’s a solid No. 3 RB with a low ceiling and (while starting) a good floor. And he has a better shot at finishing outside the top 30 than he does finishing inside the top 20.
What does this mean? His ADP is ever so slightly too bullish. In shallow leagues with plenty of waiver fodder, he’ll be more valuable while serving as Arizona’s lead back. But in deeper leagues with less talent available after the draft, some managers will want home-run hitters. 10-12 points per game often won’t cut it, especially where Conner’s typically getting drafted.
It’s better to wait several rounds and then pick up some high-upside handcuffs or target a complementary back (175+ touches) in a high-powered offense.
Different people have different approaches. Conner certainly fills a need for conservative managers. But in a league where high-end talent rises to the surface each week, Conner’s relatively bland outputs will test people’s patience.