Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill has been a WR1 every season other than his rookie year. As a perfect fit in Mike McDaniel’s explosive offense, is there any reason fantasy managers should doubt Hill this season? What is Hill’s fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Tyreek Hill’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Here are Hill’s PPR fantasy points per game finishes from 2017-2021: WR7, WR4, WR11, WR2, WR6. Hill was my most drafted player in 2017 and 2018 because, for reasons I still don’t understand to this day, the fantasy community largely doubted him.
After 2018, I accepted the fact that I’d never be able to draft Hill at a value again because there was no longer any doubt about his elite WR1 status. Then 2022 came along.
Following Hill’s trade to Miami, suddenly, the doubters were back. Hill’s ADP plummeted to its lowest point since his sophomore season. I said, “Thank you very much,” and scooped up all the Hill I could get last season.
Despite leaving Patrick Mahomes and the friendly confines of Kansas City’s offense, Hill actually posted the best season of his career. Although his 20.5 ppg in 2018 was technically higher than his 20.4 ppg last season, Hill’s overall numbers were far superior in 2022.
With the Chiefs, Hill’s highest target share was 25.1% in 2021. Many fantasy managers were concerned Hill might be more of a 1A to Jaylen Waddle’s 1B last season, and their target shares would be similar. Instead, Hill set a career-high with a 31.6% target share. There was no split. Hill was the clear WR1. Waddle was and is the WR2.
Hill turned that into several other career highs: targets (170), receptions (119), and yards (1,710). He led the NFL in targets per route run at a 33.6% rate. Hill also led the league in yards per route run and yards per team pass attempt. His 0.69 fantasy points per route run led all receivers. Essentially, Hill returned to being the most efficient receiver in the league while also setting career highs in volume.
Should You Draft Tyreek Hill This Year?
The Dolphins’ offense should look quite similar to last year. They haven’t made any meaningful moves in their passing game that would jeopardize Hill’s usage. And to be fair, it’s not as if any signing or trade would affect Hill anyway.
There is one singular concern with Hill, though. We need Tua Tagovailoa to stay on the field.
Hill is the type of receiver who is too talented to fail. He could be a WR1 with any quarterback. But if we’re drafting him to be a top-five receiver, he needs his quarterback.
Last season, Hill averaged 21.4 ppg in his 13 games with Tagovailoa. That dropped to 15.7 in his four games without him. Over a full season, I’d project Hill to average in the 16-17 ppg range playing with a backup quarterback. Still good, but not good enough to justify his ADP.
Fortunately, reports on Tua’s health have been fantastic. Given the fact he contemplated retirement, it stands to reason he will be extra cautious going forward to ensure he avoids as many big hits as possible. We can’t predict injury anyway, so let’s not try with Tua.
Hill is now 29 years old. We are not quite at the point where we should be concerned about a decline, but we’re getting close. I don’t necessarily think Hill’s skills will erode, but his body will eventually let him down. At some point, his body won’t be able to handle his blazing speed and quick twitch movements.
When that time comes, I don’t want to be left holding the bag. But I have zero concerns that it is now.
Hill is currently my WR3, which is one spot below his WR4 ADP, No. 7 overall.
I have zero reservations about making Hill my fantasy team’s franchise player in 2023. Once Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are off the board, Hill should be the next receiver drafted. I would take him as high as No. 6 overall, behind Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Bijan Robinson at the running back position. The only other two players I’d consider over Hill would be Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce.
If someone out there wanted to argue for Hill as high as No. 2 overall, I wouldn’t fight them on it. He’s a proven commodity who almost certainly has at least two elite years left. Hill is an excellent pick in fantasy drafts, as he’s been for the past seven years.