The 2023 fantasy football season is right around the corner. As drafts fire off across the nation, now is the time to dive into Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs’ fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Will Diggs make it four years in a row of elite production in Buffalo, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Stefon Diggs’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
With a 27.3% target share (10th), 34.3% air-yard share, and 23 red-zone targets (fourth), Diggs was excellent once again in 2022. The WR4 overall and WR5 in points per game (18.6 PPR), Diggs was fifth in targets (149) and one of only seven players to record over 100 receptions (108).
He finished fifth in receiving yards (1,429) and was one of only three wide receivers with double-digit touchdowns (11), joining Davante Adams (14) and A.J. Brown (11). Diggs was also tied for seventh in YPRR at 2.40 and had a 34% slot snap rate as Buffalo moved him all around the field to create mismatches.
Diggs has been unstoppable for quite some time but took it to another level since joining the Bills following the trade from Minnesota. Over the last three seasons, Diggs has averaged 161.7 targets, 112.7 receptions, 1,396.3 yards, and 9.7 touchdowns per season. During that stretch, he finished as the WR3, WR7, and WR4.
The question is, how long can he keep this up? Diggs will turn 30 this season, which is a significant number in fantasy football, as there is a decent correlation between a downward turn in production and a player reaching 30 years old.
However, rules are meant to be broken, and there will always be expectations. So far, nothing stands out as a glaring reason Diggs will all of a sudden fall off a proverbial age cliff in 2023.
Buffalo needed additional help as Gabe Davis failed to secure the No. 2 spot. Khalil Shakir is a sleeper from last year, and I hope he has a better time in Year 2 after some promising flashes. Still, he’s far from a real threat to Diggs.
If anything, the only upgrade the Bills received at pass catcher this year was in first-round TE Dalton Kincaid, who can play in the slot and run more 12 personnel if desired with Dawson Knox, which Buffalo ran the lowest amount of in the NFL last season.
None of this, however, is going to impact Diggs or his role on this team. He’s the undisputed No. 1 receiver, and with Buffalo facing a brutal schedule, especially over the back half, Diggs will have to be at the center of the action.
With three straight seasons of 100+ receptions, 150+ targets, 1,225+ yards, and 8+ touchdowns, those are the benchmarks for 2023. If Diggs falls short, then we know the regression has kicked in, but until that happens, I won’t bet against him or the Bills’ offense for fantasy. They’re both too good and deserve the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.
Should You Draft Stefon Diggs This Year?
Buffalo is a pass-first team, and Diggs is Josh Allen’s No. 1 target and best friend. They were No. 3 as an offense in passing success rate, and much of that comes down to their aggressiveness on first down. Buffalo had a 64% passing rate in 2022, which was eighth overall, but they had the third-highest PROE (passing rate over expectation) at +6.1%.
59% of their play calls on first down were out of the shotgun, with 65% of those plays with 11 personnel (3WR/1RB). Here, Buffalo had a 9.2 aDOT, the second most aggressive in the NFL, with 65% of those targets going to wide receivers. Go figure; those were going to Diggs more times than not.
That is the type of player you want leading your fantasy football team. Diggs is a no-brainer WR1 in 2023 for fantasy, especially in PPR formats where his volume can only be rivaled by a few players. He is currently WR4 in our PFN Consensus Rankings.
If you look to select wide receivers early, Diggs is your guy, as he will go inside the first 12-14 picks in most 1QB drafts. Those looking for correlation can quickly pair him with Allen, assuming he makes it into the 30s in ADP. That is about as strong of a 1-2 punch at QB/WR as you can get.
Diggs is a high-floor, high-ceiling receiver who can win you weeks when he blows up but will rarely lose you a game. That level of consistency and production is everything you could ever ask for out of an early-round pick in 2023 fantasy football drafts.