The Miami Dolphins quickly became one of the most entertaining offenses in the NFL after pairing Tyreek Hill with Jaylen Waddle. The star receivers combined for 3,066 yards and 15 touchdowns on 194 receptions. In Year 2 with head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, what does the duo have in store for us?
We preview which of the two playmakers will have the better 2023 season, so buckle in as we try to keep pace with two of the fastest players in the NFL.
Who Has the Better Year in 2023: Jaylen Waddle or Tyreek Hill?
The Case for Jaylen Waddle To Have a Better 2023
After producing an excellent rookie season that saw Waddle in a much different role than anticipated as Miami worked to overcome a horrendous offensive line with quick-hitting passes, Waddle upped the ante in 2022. In McDaniel’s first season that prioritized middle-of-the-field throws and getting Waddle into more space, Waddle almost doubled his yards per catch to a league-leading 18.1 mark.
In total, Waddle caught 75 passes on 117 targets for 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns. He was phenomenal working next to Hill, producing six games with at least 100 yards. His season in review is fascinating, as he had one game with 11 receptions, generating a season-high 171 yards against Baltimore in Week 2, but he also averaged 21.5 yards per catch in five other games.
Waddle was a hyper-efficient No. 2 receiver more often than not despite rarely running a pure “go” route. He averaged only one deep target per game, instead making his money after the catch. He was 15th in air yards but 10th in yards after the catch.
The former Alabama playmaker boasted the third-most expected points added by a receiver and the fifth-best QB rating per target. As Hill said during the season, “Waddle doesn’t get enough credit for what he truly does.” Instead of allowing the offense to generate big plays for him, Waddle was also creating plays for the offense.
The weakness of Waddle’s 2022 was more apparent than Hill’s, though. His numbers took a major nosedive in the six games when Tagovailoa either missed time or was out completely. Neither Teddy Bridgewater nor Skylar Thompson was able to feed Waddle a steady stream of valuable targets.
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Projecting forward to 2023 is difficult, even if we assume Tagovailoa plays every game. The rate at which this duo produced is unbelievable and hard to duplicate after defenses key into the McDaniel offense.
However, the two were so effective, and Tagovailoa fits the scheme so well, it’s not out of the realm for Waddle to surpass 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns. Hill mostly produced regardless of the starting quarterback outside of two games, whereas there’s an opportunity for Waddle to improve upon as many as six outings.
Waddle could have a better 2023 season if he has a full slate of Tagovailoa and if defenses are slightly effective in deterring targets from being fed to Hill, who was absolutely unstoppable for the majority of 2022.
The Case for Tyreek Hill To Have a Better 2023
Hill certainly has the easier case between the two players. He is the better, more explosive receiver of the two, with true Hall of Fame talent and traits. Though Hill shockingly said he wants to retire after his current contract with Miami expires, he has the ability to define the era of receivers between Antonio Brown and Justin Jefferson.
Though Hill and Waddle had zero touchdowns without Tagovailoa, Hill was less affected without his young star passer. That speaks to the absurdity of his ability and also how well the scheme maximizes his incredible route running, shiftiness, and speed.
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It’s not an accident he led the NFL in target rate and deep targets, then was top-five in air yards, total yards, receptions, yards after the catch, route win rate, and touchdowns.
The argument against Hill is probably easier to make than the case for him, considering there was so little we could see standing in his way from repeating his career 2022 season. Replicating his fourth All-Pro season will prove difficult, just as the Dolphins may embrace some of their own changes.
McDaniel was apologetic that he failed to run the ball more last year, and the team added third-round rusher Devon Achane to the offense in the 2023 NFL Draft. With Dalvin Cook rumors still looming over the team, the Dolphins may actually have more commitment to the run in addition to having the talent to be more effective.
More rushing attempts for a team that ranked seventh in pass play percentage last year doesn’t mean Waddle will outproduce Hill but would lead to a lower volume of targets. Because of this, barring a bizarre loss of speed and polish, Hill should be the heavy favorite to still have a better 2023 season between these two fantastic stars.
We’ll enjoy the tremendous fireworks these two offer while we still can.
