As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are QB Matthew Stafford’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Matthew Stafford’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The Los Angeles Rams went all in on the 2021 season, and they came out on top. It also came with a cost, as an aging core and salary cap restraints left little room for error in 2022. In reality, errors and misfortune hit the Rams hard last season, giving them the worst win-loss record of any defending Super Bowl champion in history.
While L.A.’s running game and defense certainly matter, this team has almost no shot at competing if Stafford gets hurt, or if he’s no longer a top-20-caliber quarterback.
It’s fair to wonder if the 35-year-old play-caller is officially breaking down. After not missing a game for eight straight seasons beginning in 2011, Stafford missed eight in 2019 and eight more last year.
He also dealt with elbow tendinitis last summer — not a surprise given how many passes he’s thrown during his career, including 741 across 21 games in his 2021 title-winning season.
Stafford is the prototypical, “How much does he have left in the tank?” fantasy quarterback. Often solid but rarely dominant, he hasn’t eclipsed 19 points in any of his last 13 games — despite playing most of those games with all-world WR Cooper Kupp.
Like Tom Brady, Stafford became more of a dinker-and-dunker last year, averaging the fourth-fewest yards per completion (for context, Brady averaged the third-fewest). And Stafford’s sack rate nearly doubled compared to the previous season, as he was taken down on a career-high 8.7% of the time.
In the last two years (including the playoffs), Stafford’s thrown 31 interceptions on 1,161 pass attempts. That’s an unusually high clip, even for someone as generous as he’s been over the years.
An optimistic take would highlight Stafford’s experience and surrounding talent — that he has enough playmakers to be a top-16 QB with some pop.
But that’s a stretch, especially on a team that realistically could be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by December, if not sooner. Would we be shocked if the Rams started 0-5 versus the Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Colts, and Eagles? Wouldn’t that put enormous pressure on this franchise to trade some of its best assets as they look to undertake a more dramatic rebuild?
Kupp is entering his age-30 season, and his value won’t get any higher. If Los Angeles has no realistic shot at another championship this season or next, why pay him another $90 million through his age-33 campaign? Wouldn’t it be wise to unload him to a contender in exchange for draft picks?
Now imagine Stafford operating without Kupp. How could he possibly be a top-16 fantasy QB in that offense? Well, of course, he could be. But the odds would be stacked against him.
With his advancing age and durability issues, Stafford is a fantasy risk any way you slice it. Compounding this risk is the Rams’ slim Super Bowl hopes, which could be all but dashed by Week 6. That has to factor into fantasy managers’ decisions on whether to snag Stafford on draft day. Because while he could resurface as a streamer, he could just as easily (or more easily) replicate his 2022 decline.
Should You Draft Matthew Stafford This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Stafford with an ADP of QB21. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at QB20. While these are entirely reasonable projections for a guy with his respectable history, they assume Stafford will net around 14-15 points per contest — or possibly a little more while missing a handful of games.
These rankings also assume Kupp will stick around all year, and that the running game will improve enough to help sustain drives that frequently fell apart for the first two-thirds of last season. Additionally, these rankings assume Van Jefferson or Tutu Atwell (or some other wideout) will become a reliably “good” No. 2 WR.
There are a lot of what-ifs impacting Stafford’s 2023 fantasy production. One should consider the high possibility that lesser-ranked QBs like Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, Anthony Richardson, and some combination of Trey Lance and Brock Purdy will outperform Stafford.
There’s no such thing as a wasted pick on a healthy starter. Anything can happen. However, reaching for Stafford at or before his ADP means you believe he’ll be a weekly starter in 2QB/Superflex leagues and an occasional streamer in 1QB leagues. At this point, that seems like a stretch.