The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation. Meaning now is the time to dive into Las Vegas Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s 2023 fantasy football projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can the new Raiders’ QB find success in a new system, and should Garoppolo be a player you draft this year?
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Jimmy Garoppolo’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Garoppolo spent the last nearly six seasons with the San Francisco 49ers after they acquired him from the New England Patriots in October 2017. While he’s never been someone who elevated those around him, Garoppolo has been a solid NFL quarterback despite the turmoil in his career.
An underrated passer who’s completed better than 67% of his passes in each of the last four seasons and has a career YPA of 8.3 yards, Garoppolo steadied the ship for San Francisco last year after Trey Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2.
Unfortunately, Garoppolo’s 2022 season was cut short in Week 12 against the Dolphins when he sustained a broken bone in his foot.
Up to that point, Garoppolo was one of the better quarterbacks in fantasy. Between Weeks 3 and 11, he was the QB11 overall and the QB12 in points per game at 17.1 PPR.
Sitting 16th in attempts at 246, Jimmy G completed 166 of his passes for 2,005 yards with 14 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Additionally, he added a TD on the ground with 24 yards on 15 carries.
But one question still hangs over Garoppolo’s head as we head into 2023. Is he a difference-maker and quality quarterback, or is he a system QB?
Can Garoppolo Succeed Away From Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ Talent?
That’s the million-dollar question. Now I won’t say Kyle Shanahan can start anyone under center and win. That’s a lazy argument. Just look at Nick Mullens (5-11 record as a starter) and C.J. Bethard (2-11), and that gets thrown out the door. But does he elevate what is there? Absolutely. That’s what he did with Garoppolo.
Garoppolo is a pure game manager. That’s it. Nothing wrong with that, but we need to be honest about what he is before trying to say what he can be. Last year, Garoppolo was 23rd in yards (2,437) but 33rd in air yards (2,112). He was also 33rd in deep passing attempts (28), 27th in red-zone attempts (39), 30th in air yards per attempt (6.9), and 40th in xFPT/game (13.11 and +2.23).
Garoppolo also finished 26th in deep-ball completion percentage (32.1%), 20th in clean-pocket percentage (69.7%), 14th in EPA, 23rd and 31st in accuracy vs. man and zone, respectively, 50th in carries per game, and 10th in fantasy points per dropback (0.52).
But it’s not all bad. Garoppolo does have some good traits. For one, he’s relatively accurate, posting the fourth-highest catchable deep-ball rate (69%), the second-highest-pressured catchable ball rate (71.9%), and an overall catchable pass rate of 80.5%, placing him eighth in 2023.
But do you know what he doesn’t have? Shanahan. Deebo Samuel. Brandon Aiyuk. George Kittle. Christian McCaffrey. A top-tier offensive line. An elite defense. How about a team that will lead the league in yards after the catch per target (4.54)?
Sure, Davante Adams is spectacular, but who else steps up? Las Vegas traded Darren Waller to New York for a song and a dance, which will leave a gaping hole. Waller still ranks third among NFL tight ends in catches (280) and receiving yards (3,394) since 2019, behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, despite appearing in just 20 games over the last two seasons.
Garoppolo Doesn’t Move the Needle for Fantasy in 2023
Garoppolo goes from one of the most stacked rosters — which is likely a top-two team in not just its division but conference — to a team likely staring down a 5-12 or 6-11 season, with his playmakers being Adams, Josh Jacobs, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, DeAndre Carter, Keelan Cole, Austin Hooper, O.J. Howard, and maybe something from Michael Mayer.
Las Vegas traded in one low-upside QB for another while making the roster worse in the process.
It’s hard for me to project Garoppolo as anything more than a low-upside, low-end QB2 that will live in the QB16-QB24 range and never win you a fantasy matchup.
When the only time you throw for over 300 yards with those weapons is when your defense gives up 44 points to the eventual Super Bowl champions, I don’t see why I or any manager should be excited about that player for fantasy with a worse play-caller and on a worse roster in a less aggressive/advanced scheme.
Should You Draft Garoppolo This Year?
At this point, you likely know which direction this will go, given my less-than-glowing thoughts on Garoppolo’s current situation. He doesn’t move the needle for fantasy, especially on the Raiders.
In a 1QB league when anywhere between 10-12 quarterbacks on average are started, and roughly 16-20 are even rostered, Garoppolo is not only someone I’m not targeting on draft day but, in most cases, shouldn’t go drafted at all in redraft leagues.
Last year alone, including down seasons for Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, 11 different QBs started 11+ games and averaged over 18 PPR/game. That doesn’t even include players who will be better in 2023, like Dak Prescott (17.8), Justin Herbert (17.0), and Deshaun Watson (15.1). Garoppolo had everything at his disposal and only squeaked out 15.3 per game.
Derek Carr, in this same offense, had only 15.5 PPR/game despite sitting 11th in attempts (502). His QB12 finish in 2021 was the only time in the last six seasons he was a QB1 (QB19, QB18, QB17, QB14, QB12, QB16).
If Garoppolo follows the same path in 2023 — assuming he does — that’s not going to help you in your normal fantasy league.
When it comes to Superflex drafts, Garoppolo makes more sense for those going for the later-QB2 approach, where you draft an elite option like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and the like to carry the position.
Even then, I prefer a QB2 with more upside, like Kenny Pickett, or taking a shot on the rushing upside of Anthony Richardson despite the apparent flaws in his game. Ideally, two of my first three picks are quarterbacks, but being flexible in the draft is everything.
Garoppolo is better served as a quality QB3 in Superflex to use in bye weeks or in case of an injury. He no longer has the benefit of playing the matchup game, as Las Vegas will rarely, if ever, be favored in 2023, given how their schedule played out. I highly doubt I’ll draft Garoppolo on any of my fantasy football teams this year.