The 2023 fantasy football season is alive as ever as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can the Bengals’ star signal-caller make it three years in a row with elite outings, and should Burrow be a player you draft this year?
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Joe Burrow’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Each year, it feels as if Burrow is becoming an outlier. Pocket passers are continually being replaced with dual-threat quarterbacks. In fantasy, it’s a massive advantage. However, Burrow is one of the few quarterbacks that can take on the likes of Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen only using his arm.
Burrow has firmly established himself as a premier fantasy football quarterback. He finished as the QB4 in fantasy football scoring while averaging 21.7 points per game.
Attempting the fifth-highest number of passes (640), Burrow completed 418 for 4,527 yards with 36 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also added some sneaky rushing upside with five scores and 259 yards on 76 carries.
We must also remember Burrow did this in 16 games, not 17, due to the unbelievable Damar Hamlin situation. We’re likely looking at closer to 4,800 passing yards and 38+ touchdowns if that game had been played.
Over the last two years, Burrow has completed 69.3% of his throws while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, and the advanced metrics show he’s getting better and better. He truly is Joe cool in the pocket and routinely makes the correct decision.
Burrow was sixth in true completion percentage (72.8%) and EPA+CPOE, ninth in red-zone completion percentage (59.4%), sixth in clean pocket completion percentage (72.0%), third in passer rating (100.6), sixth in EPA, fifth in red-zone accuracy, second in deep accuracy, and fifth in clean pocket accuracy while also posting a 73.5% completion percentage against zone with the second and fourth-highest accuracy ratings vs. man and zone respectively.
The Bengals, in their DNA, are a pass-first team. They were fifth in attempts, with Burrow also sitting 13th in deep-ball throws (54), fifth in red-zone attempts (96), seventh in team passing plays per game (35.9), and 16th in pace of play.
With over 9,000 yards and 69 touchdowns over the last two seasons, it’s hard to find aay reason why 2023 will be any different, given how closely they have mirrored themselves. Not only is Burrow one of the best passers from an efficiency standpoint, but he has one of the highest volume floors in the league.
Fantasy managers should expect a heavy dose of Burrow targeting Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Irv Smith Jr., and even potentially Charlie Jones in four-WR sets.
Following two straight seasons of nearly identical production and volume, I feel confident stating Burrow and the Bengals will make it three in a row in 2023, with Burrow finishing as a top-four quarterback for fantasy with over 4,600 yards and 35+ touchdowns.
Should You Draft Joe Burrow This Year?
Where Burrow shined in 2023 was in his consistency. In 16 games, he finished with less than 16.6 fantasy points only twice. He was never the reason you lost a game last season, which is all you could ever ask for from a starting player.
Cincinnati will do what we saw last year and the year before. They are going to throw. While their overall passing rate was at 66%, they were No. 2 in passing rate over expectation at +7.6%, only behind the Kansas City Chiefs at 10.8%. They were also second in the NFL with an 82% 11-personnel rate on first down and a 66% shotgun rate.
What does that mean? It means Zac Taylor is putting the ball in Burrow’s hands as often as possible. He is the straw that stirs the drink.
Cincinnati is a top-three team in the AFC, and given their strength of schedule, they will be in shootouts, which is great for fantasy football managers, as they have excellent efficiency and volume to match.
Like many of you, I often target quarterbacks with the rushing floor. They tend to have a higher ceiling. However, the one exception is Burrow. He has the best poise in the pocket of any quarterback in the NFL. He is currently my QB4 in 2023 redraft rankings, right behind Hurts and in a tier with Lamar Jackson.
It will all come down to ADP for Burrow, but if he is available in the fifth round, he is certainly worth the selection, especially if you are stacking him with either Chase or Higgins. But you can also wait a few extra rounds for Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, or Trevor Lawrence.
Guys like Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson likely won’t be drafted for potentially three to four rounds after Burrow goes, making it an individual manager’s decision on how early they want to draft a signal-caller, especially in 1QB leagues.
In most of my 2023 fantasy football leagues, I want an elite quarterback, and I consider Burrow one of them. While I have traditionally been a wait-on-QB-type player, the last several years have seen me switch my style more to being aggressive and gaining an advantage over the majority of managers in my league.
So long as the value matches, Burrow is undoubtedly on my radar as a top-tier quarterback to draft in 2023 fantasy football leagues.