Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson became the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley in 2018. On a run-first offense with a great offensive line, is Robinson worth paying up for as a rookie? What is Robinson’s fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Bijan Robinson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Should the Falcons have drafted Robinson eighth overall in the NFL Draft? Of course not. Tyler Allgeier was more than competent last season. But as fantasy managers, do we love rookie running backs with high draft capital? Absolutely.
The Falcons making the ridiculous decision to spend their early first-round selection on a running back may not help their winning prospects, but it’s great for our fantasy teams. We can feel very confident in the Falcons using Robinson as an every-down back, of which there are seldom few remaining in the league.
Robinson is the total package at running back. He has 4.46 speed. He’s an early declare. His highest-season college target share was 9.6%, establishing him as a capable pass catcher. In his final year at Texas, he ran for 1,580 yards and 20 touchdowns. Simply put, Robinson can do it all.
The Falcons may allege that Allgeier will still be heavily involved. And perhaps he will see a 40-50% snap share early on. But it’s only a matter of time before Robinson completely dominates this backfield.
Last year, Michael Carter started over Breece Hall at the beginning of the season. While Hall’s season was unfortunately cut short due to an ACL tear, by the time he got hurt, he was the clear lead back, and it wasn’t close. That is what we can expect from Robinson. And my guess is it will happen by Week 3 at the latest.
Allgeier was highly effective last season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He did that despite averaging just 1.6 yards before contact, which I found surprising as the Falcons’ offensive line was quite good last season.
Regardless, Robinson is a much more talented player. Even if without quality blocking, he has a very good chance of averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry this season. The Falcons’ offensive line checks in at No. 7 in PFN’s offensive line rankings. Robinson should have plenty of lanes to run through.
The only concern with Robinson, if there even is one, is his receiving work. We already established he’s a quality pass catcher, but that doesn’t automatically mean the volume will be there.
The Falcons have a mobile quarterback in Desmond Ridder. He needs to get the ball to his top pass catchers in Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Even if we assume Robinson is third in targets, last season, the Falcons targeted the running back position just 16.6% of the time, the eighth-lowest rate in the league.
Fortunately, Robinson only needs a moderate receiving role to have a truly fantastic rookie year. The Falcons want to run the ball like it’s 1970. Last year, they led the NFL with a 56% neutral game script run rate. Health is likely the only thing standing between Robinson and a 300-carry season.
Should You Draft Bijan Robinson This Year?
When it comes to draft strategy, we are going to see a shift this year to wide receivers going early. We last saw this in 2016 when five of the first seven picks were WRs. But the most valuable asset in fantasy football remains the elite running back.
Despite not having played an NFL snap, Robinson is already viewed as an elite running back. Fantasy managers should have no reservations about drafting him in the first round. The real question is, how early can you justify him?
In the interest of full disclosure, I believe Robinson will finish as the overall RB1 and be the consensus 1.01 in 2024 fantasy drafts. Do with that what you will.
For the 2023 season, he’s my RB3, which matches his ADP, and I would take him as high as fifth overall. If you wanted to take him first overall this year, I wouldn’t have an ounce of criticism.
Everything is set up perfectly for Robinson to smash right away. He’s got a great situation, great opportunity, and all the talent in the world. With an ADP of seventh overall, fantasy managers are already wise to the impact Robinson can have right away. He is worthy of anchoring your fantasy teams as a mid-first-round pick.
