With the 2023 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, fantasy football managers — particularly those in dynasty leagues — are trying to size up rookie values. After beefing up their secondary and offensive/defensive lines in the opening rounds, the Washington Commanders secured RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. in the sixth. What might dynasty managers expect from him?
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Dynasty Outlook and Value
On the one hand, it was a curious choice. After (shockingly) coming oh-so-close to a playoff berth in 2022, Washington added a Day 3 running back to a backfield that already seemingly has two capable running backs.
In the meantime, the Commanders are putting all their QB faith in last year’s fifth-round pick, Sam Howell — the same Sam Howell whose only appearance was in a meaningless Week 18 matchup. Howell served as the third-string QB on a team whose passing attack was no better than the previous year’s, and which ranked among the league’s bottom 12 statistically.
On the other hand, as the only skill player taken by this franchise, Rodriguez appears to have been a deliberate target — a value pick that Washington couldn’t pass up. He was the No. 193 selection. Last year, the Chiefs selected Isiah Pacheco at No. 251. Two years ago, the Niners added Elijah Mitchell at No. 194. Two years before that, Travis Homer went at No. 204 and Myles Gaskin at No. 234, both developing into serviceable backs.
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We simply cannot discount a running back based on where they’re drafted, especially in the modern NFL, where the position has become a factory for churning out talent and burning through many of them quickly, necessitating more churn.
The Commanders’ Antonio Gibson is a prime example. He never profiled as a future NFL bell cow, compiling just 33 carries and 44 receptions in two collegiate campaigns at Memphis. Yet, he was thrust into the starting RB role as a rookie in 2020, netting 206 touches — a mammoth total for someone like him.
Gibson followed that up with 310 touches in 2021. Not surprisingly, he struggled more, as he experienced dips in yards per carry, yards after contact, and broken-tackle rate.
All of those dips continued last season. In two years, he’s gone from the future of the franchise to an expendable contributor.
The Commanders saw the writing on the wall last year, drafting Brian Robinson Jr. in the third round to take some of the load off Gibson, and of course, because Robinson showed promise as an NFL-ready starter. After heroically recovering from a preseason shooting, Robinson frequently paced the backfield.
Yet, his metrics weren’t much better than Gibson’s. Statistically, Robinson was a below-average starting RB.
I believe Washington believes they still haven’t found their guy. Or maybe they still think Robinson can develop into a capable starter but are hedging their bets heading into 2023, especially with Gibson entering the final year of his rookie contract.
And this is where Rodriguez factors in. Before adding the Kentucky product, the Commanders used a third- and fourth-round pick on offensive linemen Ricky Stromberg and Braeden Daniels. They not only want to protect Howell; they also (I believe) want to turn this into a run-heavy offense.
Rodriguez is known for his power running. Don’t expect finesse. Instead, expect yards after initial contact. Expect plenty of work on 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-inches. And perhaps Rodriguez will give this team an effective tool near the goal line.
From a fantasy perspective, Rodriguez might top out as a top 40-50 RB during his career. TD-dependency is tied to his value, and, of course, he’ll need heavy volume — something we shouldn’t expect (barring injuries to Robinson and/or Gibson) in 2023, and probably shouldn’t expect in 2024 or 2025, assuming Robinson continues as the 1A back.
Essentially, Rodriguez might do more to curb Robinson’s ceiling than anything else. Washington appears committed to winning the line of scrimmage, thereby winning games against teams that simply can’t stop the run. It worked against the then-undefeated Eagles last year. The Rodriguez pick signals that Washington wants to make this a more consistent feature of their offense.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Fantasy Ranking
PFN’s Tommy Garrett ranks Rodriguez No. 40 in his rookie dynasty mock draft, sandwiched between Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte and Cowboys TE Luke Schoonmaker. As we know, rankings are largely subjective, because they hinge not only on objective truths about players but also perceptions of how they’ll be utilized, as well as personal fantasy preferences.
For example, you might be the kind of manager who loads up on 1B running backs (“complementary” RBs like AJ Dillon) and RB handcuffs, knowing that you can get massive upside at relatively little expense.
Or you might be a best-in-class manager who targets elite positional-skill players whenever possible, followed by filling positional gaps. Why take a running back who gets you 6-8 points when you can snag a wide receiver who averages 8-10?
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I fall into the former camp, which means I’m normally biased toward guys like Rodriguez. That said, he’ll face an uphill climb to becoming a weekly fantasy starter. He might end up being one of those players who elevates his team much more than he elevates fantasy managers.
And hey, that’s great. But savvy dynasty managers should understand the risks and benefits.
Rodriguez’s path to fantasy glory realistically could come in 2026 if Robinson is gone, and if the Commanders believe Rodriguez is capable of handling the starting job. A narrower path finds Rodriguez beating out Robinson sooner rather than later and poaching the 1A role.
Yet, for much of his career, he could be bench fodder. So if you’re looking to strike gold with a team’s starting TE — hoping he turns into the next George Kittle (a former fifth-round pick) — then, in terms of upside, going tight end makes sense. But if you have a big backfield hole to fill and could use a boom-bust option these next few years, then Rodriguez has the talent to at least get an opportunity to show Washington what he can do.