In order to find success early on in an NFL career as a quarterback, a stable environment is imperative. Heck, it’s imperative for veteran quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers’s stretch from 2017-2021 is a fine example of that. Trevor Lawrence was destined to fail in Year 1 under Urban Meyer. But look what happened in Year 2.
Which of Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and Hendon Hooker enter stable environments conducive to success, and which QBs will struggle if they’re forced into action early on, with little fault of it their own?
Rookie QB Environment Rankings
1) Hendon Hooker, Detroit Lions
Hendon Hooker enters the best environment as a rookie, which shouldn’t be surprising given his draft position. The best thing about Hooker’s situation is that he won’t need to start immediately, which was an absolute necessity for him entering the league.
Hooker may be the brightest QB of all time, even Albert Einstein would’ve had a learning curve coming from the Tennessee offense to an NFL-caliber scheme. The Volunteers’ offense is likely the reason we saw many of their offensive talents fall further than expected in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Another positive regarding Hooker’s fit is the roster. Even if Hooker has to play for some reason as a rookie, he’ll be provided with some outstanding insulation.
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The Lions’ offensive line is outstanding. A plus pass catcher and pass protector, David Montgomery is a three-down back, and Jahmyr Gibbs is a legitimate home-run threat as a runner. Adding Hooker’s mobility adds a gap to what should already be a difficult rushing attack to defend.
Not having Jameson Williams to begin the season is less than ideal for Detroit, but hopefully, he’ll have returned by the time Hooker is thrust into action. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Marvin Jones Jr. are a talented enough duo on the outside, and the Lions will try again with an Iowa tight end drafted in the first two rounds.
2) Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
One of the positives with Bryce Young is that he’s immediately ready to dive head-first into starting at the NFL level (we think). However, if, for some reason, Young needs some time to integrate himself into Frank Reich’s offense, Andy Dalton is in the building to start the season as the Panthers’ QB.
The next three in the rankings are all entering similar environments. While Bobby Slowik doesn’t have the experience of Shane Steichen or Reich, he comes from an offensive mind factory in San Francisco. There was an edge we needed to find to tip the scales, and a veteran QB who could be a backup and potentially a mentor put Young’s fit over the top.
Although the Panthers have one of the weaker receiving corps amongst the five unless Jonathan Mingo somehow turns into A.J. Brown overnight, the combination of play-caller, offensive line, and QB readiness gave Young the edge.
3) Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
We all saw what Steichen was able to accomplish with Jalen Hurts. Now he gets to try his hand as the head coach of a quarterback with a supercharged arm, turbocharged legs, and an even bigger frame than his former QB.
Of the five quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds, Anthony Richardson may have the longest road toward becoming a consistent passer at the next level, but the road has fewer twists and turns than many may believe. His lower body mechanics need fine-tuning, but when Richardson has a stable base underneath him, and his sequencing is sound, he’s a naturally accurate passer.
The Colts’ offensive line is underwhelming, but I’d expect Steichen to mitigate that through a heavy dose of RPO looks along with quick vertical concepts along the sidelines to use Richardson’s arm talent to the fullest. And the pairing with Jonathan Taylor makes for two home-run threats at the position.
“Jonathan Taylor coming back is a huge plus, because of the double threat of their speed,” Colts owner Jim Irsay said. “Both of them are unprecedented players at their position, in terms of size, speed, what they can do.”
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Adding a slot option like Josh Downs was a massive win for Indianapolis in Round 3 as well because he should become good friends with Richardson quickly. Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce are two big-bodied receivers who complement one another with different styles.
But a sneaky positive is actually Gardner Minshew. Minshew followed Steichen from Philadelphia and has intimate knowledge of the offense. Teams can’t meet and practice as much as young players need to. But there’s nothing against players meeting on their own to get work in. And having an encyclopedia of Steichen’s offense to sponge off could pay dividends for Richardson.
4) C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Although his situation ranks only fourth-best among the group, that certainly doesn’t mean that C.J. Stroud‘s environment is poor. The Texans have an underrated offensive line. That is, as long as Kenyon Green shows progress from a season ago and Juice Scruggs can swiftly insert into the starting lineup.
While the receiving corps lacks the high-end talent that could be a safety blanket for a young QB, that doesn’t mean the Texans lack a QB’s best friend. Dalton Schultz should be exactly that for Houston early in Stroud’s career. Additionally, their roster goes six deep with NFL-caliber talent at the position, even if there isn’t a No. 1 or even a high-end No. 2 among them.
Slowik began his career six years ago alongside DeMeco Ryans as a defensive quality control coach, but he swiftly proved himself a solid offensive mind, eventually rising to the role of passing coordinator. I’m no genius, but the 49ers just had an efficient passing attack with Mr. Irrelevant. It’s fair to have some cautious optimism around Slowik, even if calling plays is a whole different animal than creating concepts to play with.
“I called the plays in San Francisco,” 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan says. “But Bobby’s gone through everything. He’s prepared everything. Just like Mike LaFleur did. Just like Mike McDaniel did. When they do get their opportunity to go do it on their own, they’ve been real close to it already. They’re not going to have some guy from another building come in and help tell them how to do it. They’ve been preparing for this their whole careers.”
5) Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Will Levis was already someone who needed a bit more seasoning coming from Kentucky. He has spats of inconsistent decision-making, is far too willing to take unnecessary shots in the pocket, and needs some fine-tuning with his mechanics as well. But he also needs to be healthy, which we learned after Levis wasn’t selected on Day 1 of the NFL Draft was a concern for teams.
And while it’s nice that Levis likely won’t have to start for Tennessee unless Ryan Tannehill suffers an injury, things could be ugly if he does. That offensive line, despite the addition of Peter Skoronski, is the worst among the five. We just saw Levis sputter behind a bad Kentucky OL in 2022.
The best thing for Levis might be to have surgery on his toe (if he actually needs it) and take his time recovering. It wouldn’t be the worst thing to see more Malik Willis if Tannehill goes down, even if it’s only to bring his trade value back up to around the value Tennessee used to draft him.