With the 2023 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, fantasy football managers — particularly those in dynasty leagues — are trying to size up rookie values. The Houston Texans made a fascinating third-round selection, opting for WR Nathaniel Dell. What might dynasty managers expect from him?
Nathaniel Dell Dynasty Outlook and Value
Three years ago, the mighty Texans blew a 24-0 lead on the Chiefs in the playoffs. Kansas City went on to win the Super Bowl — a title that Houston had the personnel to win.
Houston has gone through a massive upheaval in the three years since, including four head coaches and a league-worst 11-38-1 record. But they entered April with the draft capital to make a lot of noise. And with an early Day 1 trade that handed them the No. 3 overall pick, they did.
Paired with the No. 2 selection, the Texans walked out of the first round with their franchise QB and the No. 1 defensive player in the draft. But Houston’s most intriguing selection might have come early in Round 3, when they snagged Dell.
The timing seemed perfect, with WRs Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman coming off the board four and five picks later, respectively. But how will Dell fit into this revamped Houston offense, and how should dynasty managers quantify his value?
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Well, let’s first consider that the Texans’ No. 1 WR job is wide open. Brandin Cooks is gone, and the seemingly severely post-prime Robert Woods is on board. Woods is now 31 and needs a minor miracle to become more than a 40-yard-per-game option — and even that might be ambitious.
Nico Collins is a 24-year-old former third-rounder who’s flashed at times while missing 10 contests in his first two campaigns. And John Metchie III missed all of last season after getting drafted in the second round. He has massive upside but also has a lot of work to do to find his NFL footing.
Interestingly, Dell will turn 24 in October, making him quite old for a rookie. Also interestingly (or really, it’s more of a concern), he’s only 5’8″ and 165 pounds. If he were 21, we might assume Dell could add another inch or two to his frame. But at his age, this is likely who he’ll be for his career, albeit with opportunities to add more muscle to his frame.
And this is where we get to the yellow flags surrounding Dell’s NFL future. He’s not built to be a WR1 — a key factor when assessing dynasty values. Yes, he’s a fantastic playmaker with the ball in his hands, and he might become a reasonably useful TD-dependent fantasy asset. There’s no doubt he has the skills to succeed in this league.
However, if things go according to plan, he’ll play these next two years alongside, at minimum, Collins and Metchie — two similarly capable receivers with strong ceilings.
They’ll be catching balls thrown by C.J. Stroud, who realistically might need at least a year to become a top-24 fantasy QB, and perhaps three years to reach Trevor Lawrence Year 3 levels . . . if he develops just as quickly as Lawrence.
The Texans are a work in progress with a lot of young and largely unproven pieces. When we add in Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary, we can envision the possibility of a run-friendly offense in 2023 as Stroud acclimates.
Even if Houston loosens the reins on their rookie QB, the clutter of Woods, Collins, and Metchie — oh, and exceptional pass-catching TE Dalton Schultz — it’s hard to see how Marshall becomes a top-35 WR until at least 2025 or even 2026.
Nathaniel Dell Fantasy Ranking
PFN’s Tommy Garrett ranks Dell No. 43 in his rookie dynasty mock draft, sandwiched between Bengals WR Charlie Jones and Lions QB Hendon Hooker. As we know, rankings are largely subjective, because they hinge not only on objective truths about players but also perceptions of how they’ll be utilized, as well as personal fantasy preferences.
For example, you might be the kind of manager who loads up on 1B running backs (“complementary” RBs like AJ Dillon) and RB handcuffs, knowing that you can get massive upside at relatively little expense.
Or you might be a best-in-class manager who targets elite positional-skill players whenever possible, followed by filling positional gaps. Why take a running back who gets you 6-8 points when you can snag a wide receiver who averages 8-10?
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I fall into the former camp, which means I’m normally biased against guys like Dell, especially on a team with young, crowded receiving corps. Factor in questions surrounding Stroud’s future top-10 potential, as well as Dell’s slight frame, and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll have the opportunity and physicality to be a mainstay fantasy contributor.
If you play in a large dynasty league (14+ teams with loads of bench spots), then, of course, it makes sense to snag Dell in your dynasty drafts, because anyone who might become a team’s No. 2 WR in the next three years deserves attention.
But be cautious about reaching for a guy who might top out as a back-end starter, when you could land a team’s No. 3 RB who, because of the position’s unpredictability, could become a more dominant fantasy producer over time.