Over a month has passed since Aaron Rodgers announced his intention to play for the New York Jets. After weeks of inaction, the Green Bay Packers finally came to terms with the Jets on a deal to send Rodgers to Gang Green.
Adam Schefter reported the Jets sent their 2023 first, second, and sixth-rounders, as well as a conditional 2024 second that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps this year in exchange for Rodgers and Green Bay’s 2023 first and fifth-rounders. Here are the key fantasy football winners and losers of the trade.
Aaron Rodgers Trade Fantasy Football Winners
This won’t come as much of a surprise, but most of the winners are going to be on the Jets’ side of things. Even at his advanced age, you will be hard-pressed to find a bigger upgrade in quarterback ability than going from Zach Wilson to Rodgers.
Garrett Wilson
Without question, the biggest winner of the Rodgers trade is Garrett Wilson. The Jets’ WR1 averaged 12.7 ppg as a rookie while eclipsing 1,100 receiving yards. And as great as his season was, it should’ve been even better had he not had to endure playing half his games with his namesake, Zach Wilson.
The key to Garrett’s success was catching passes from anyone not named Zach. With any other quarterback, he averaged 17.3 ppg. The threshold for WR1 production is about 16.0 ppg. Even with Joe Flacco and Mike White, Garrett was clearly a fantasy WR1. Essentially, Garrett is QB-proof. Well…almost. He’s just not Wilson-proof.
We know Rodgers loves to feature his WR1. Going back to the days of Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson, Rodgers can turn good talent into great production. Give him someone like Davante Adams, and you get an elite WR1. Wilson is on the Adams path.
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Last season, Wilson’s catchable target rate was outside the top 90. There’s no way Rodgers doesn’t improve that.
In general, I’m going to aggressively target sophomore wide receivers that showed immense promise as rookies. So, Wilson was already on my radar even without the QB upgrade. With Rodgers, I’m expecting Wilson to be an early second-round pick in 2023 redraft leagues, if not a back-end first-rounder.
And I don’t care — I’m in. Wilson has legitimate top-five upside this season.
Breece Hall
It took Breece Hall just seven games to prove himself as an elite talent. As a rookie on a bad offense, he averaged 16.4 ppg and was well on his way to 1,000 yards rushing and an RB1 season.
Hall averaged 5.8 yards per carry, but that doesn’t tell the full story. He was even better than that.
Although he didn’t play enough games to qualify, Hall’s 6.9 yards per touch led all running backs. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was also the best in the league. An astounding 11.3% of his carries went for at least 15 yards. Only one running back had a higher rate.
Essentially, Hall established himself as the total package in fantasy football. He’s one of a select few true three-down backs.
Hall’s 13% target share was also quite impressive for a rookie and gives him a high weekly ceiling. The biggest impediment to Hall going from very good to elite was the lack of touchdown upside. With Rodgers, the Jets’ offense will be scoring more points. Thus, Hall is likely to score more touchdowns. Hall has 20-touchdown upside in this offense.
So far, we haven’t received any negative reports on Hall’s surgically repaired knee. As long as his ACL recovery continues to progress well, he should be ready for Week 1. While we won’t get 100% Hall in September, by the second half of the season, he should be back to full strength and ready to win leagues.
Jordan Love
There is one winner on the Packers’ side of things, and that’s new starting quarterback Jordan Love. With Rodgers out of the way, the Packers’ 2020 first-round pick finally gets his chance to assume the starting job.
In the modern NFL, we never see heir apparent quarterbacks sit for more than a year. Love, however, has been biding his time for three seasons.
The last first-round QB to sit for three years before starting was…you guessed it! Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was drafted in 2005 and did not start until Brett Favre left in 2008. Now 24 years old, Love will be handed the keys to the offense.
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Love made just one start in his career, which came in 2021 when Rodgers missed a game due to COVID. He threw for 190 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Love also ran it five times for 23 yards.
Love brings a dual-threat dimension to the Packers’ offense. By all accounts, he’s improved significantly since the 2021 season. So much so that Green Bay’s coaching staff now has full confidence in him to lead this team.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from Love from a fantasy perspective. He’s thrown all of 83 career passes. But he went from being completely irrelevant as a backup to an unquestioned starter. That is a significant jump in fantasy value. At the very least, Love is worth a stab as a QB2 with an unknown ceiling.
Aaron Rodgers Trade Fantasy Football Losers
One team in this deal lost Rodgers. No disrespect to Love, but Rodgers he is not. The Packers’ offense simply won’t be as good. Unless Love displays passing ability on the level of Rodgers, the output of the receivers will suffer.
Christian Watson
Don’t take this as me saying to avoid Christian Watson this season. I just said above how I like to target sophomore wide receivers that played well as rookies. Watson averaged 11.7 ppg as a rookie, catching 41 passes for 611 yards and seven touchdowns. He displayed a very high ceiling.
In theory, Watson should only get better in his second season. It’s entirely possible that going from Rodgers to Love will suppress Watson’s ADP, thus making him more draftable.
However, in terms of raw production, it would be unfair to classify going from Rodgers to Love as anything other than a downgrade. As a result, Watson is, unfortunately, a fantasy football loser.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon
These two are only losers in the sense that the Packers’ offense will likely not score as much with Love as it did with Rodgers. Otherwise, the usage and split between Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should be relatively the same.
Last season, Jones played 57% of the snaps to Dillon’s 43%. Jones was a low RB1 and Dillon a low RB3. I expect their production to converge upon each other a bit.
They both get slapped with the loser label because their TD upside declines without Rodgers, but I still view Jones as a mid-RB2 and Dillon as a high-end RB3.
Are Any Other Players Impacted by the Aaron Rodgers Trade?
I would be remiss to conclude this article without mentioning Allen Lazard. The Jets signed Lazard last month to a four-year deal. His contract, combined with his relationship with Rodgers, suggests he’ll be the team’s WR2 opposite Wilson.
Lazard’s fantasy value already took a hit by virtue of going from the Packers’ top option to the Jets’ No. 2 option. His rapport with Rodgers will keep him on the fantasy radar, though.
Last season, Lazard posted the best year of his career. He caught 60 passes for 788 yards and six touchdowns, averaging a career-high 11.7 ppg.
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Even 9.0 ppg is WR4 production and worthy of being on fantasy rosters. I would be surprised if Lazard wasn’t at least around there. Since 2019, Lazard has never averaged lower than 9.3 ppg. He’s more WR4 than WR3, though.
Finally, we have Corey Davis and Mecole Hardman. It still wouldn’t shock me if the Jets cut Davis. Hardman just provides a more dynamic aspect to the offense, and Davis would be an overpriced WR4. Either way, neither of these guys will be fantasy relevant without an injury to Wilson or Lazard. Even then, they would just be speculative waiver wire pickups.