Although C.J. Stroud was initially the betting favorite to become the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft after the Carolina Panthers acquired the selection from the Chicago Bears, Bryce Young now looks like the preferred choice at the top of Round 1.
Appearing on NFL Live Thursday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter said Young’s visit with the Houston Texans — who hold the No. 2 pick — is a “waste of time” because the Alabama star is “going to be the No. 1 pick.”
This aligns with other recent reporting that pegs Young as the Panthers’ top target. Earlier his month, Peter King of NBC Sports wrote that “several influential voices in the (Carolina) organization favor Young.” On Wednesday, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer said, “The Panthers see something special in Young.”
It’s beginning to feel like a near-universal belief that Young will head to Carolina on draft night. Assuming that happens, where will the rest of the draft’s best quarterbacks end up?
Gaming Out the NFL Draft QB Landscape if Bryce Young Goes First
It’s Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Panthers have selected Young, who’s received his jersey, hat, and hug from Roger Goodell. What comes next?
2) Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
There have been suggestions that the Texans could draft a defensive player with the No. 2 overall pick — especially if Young is already gone — then use their draft ammunition to trade back up the board for a quarterback.
Could this happen? Sure. After the second pick, Houston has five more picks through the fourth round, plus extra first and fourth-rounders in the 2024 NFL Draft. They have the draft capital to make this scenario work.
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Will this happen? I doubt it. Sacrificing selections to come back up for a quarterback when they could simply take a signal-caller at No. 2 feels unnecessary and overly complicated. Given the uncertainty around NFL Draft picks, there’s a decent chance that a defensive player chosen by the Texans at No. 12 posts an equal or better career than a defender they could grab at No. 2.
Houston should use this opportunity to land a franchise quarterback, and the pick here is Stroud. The Ohio State passer is highly accurate, an excellent decision-maker, and has displayed hidden mobility. The Texans will need to work to improve the supporting cast around Stroud, but he’s ready to start from Day 1.
3) Las Vegas Raiders (from ARI): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
As many as six teams have reportedly inquired about trading for the No. 3 pick, and the Cardinals have every reason to make a deal. With one of the worst rosters in the NFL, Arizona is staring at a multi-year rebuilding process. First-year decision-makers Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon would do well to add additional draft capital, especially given that they don’t need a quarterback.
In this mock trade, the Raiders are the team moving up the board. Las Vegas will send its first-round pick (No. 7), second-round pick (No. 38), and earliest third-round pick (No. 70) to the Cardinals in exchange for the third overall selection.
After trading up, the Raiders are taking a home-run swing by drafting Florida’s Anthony Richardson. The Florida alum blew up the Scouting Combine, setting new records in the vertical and broad jumps while posting a 4.44 40-yard dash at 6’5″, 248 pounds. If there’s a quarterback anywhere close to a Patrick Mahomes Lite in this draft, it’s probably Richardson.
Because Las Vegas signed Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, they won’t feel the need to rush Richardson into the starting lineup. However, Garoppolo hasn’t completed a full season without injury since 2019, so there’s a decent chance Richardson would see the field in his rookie year. Between Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs, the Raiders have the weapons to help him succeed from the get-go.
4) Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Chris Ballard’s tenure as the Colts’ general manager has been defined by conservatism, so he may not be inclined to trade up for a quarterback. The Texans are unlikely to trade within the division, so Indy’s only real option would be to move up one spot and flip picks with the Cardinals.
Jim Irsay could convince (read: force) Ballard into swapping selections with the Cardinals, but in this scenario, they stay put and take the signal-caller that falls into their laps: Kentucky’s Will Levis.
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Levis’ mechanics need work, but he has a powerful arm that allows him to target the intermediate-to-deep areas of the field with ease. While his 2022 performance wasn’t as impressive as his 2021 showing, Levis dealt with numerous injuries last season and didn’t have a great set of weapons at his disposal.
Levis is a risky prospect, but the Colts can afford to take a bit of a risk after cycling through various veteran quarterbacks for the past half-decade. Indy hired former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to draft and develop their next passer. Levis and Jalen Hurts, Steichens’ former pupil, are very different players, but the first-year Colts head coach should have a plan on how to best deploy the ex-Wildcat.
5) Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
While the Seahawks may have considered a quarterback had one fallen to them at No. 5, they’re comfortable sticking with Geno Smith in 2023. Seattle made the playoffs last season and will look to compete again next year in a weak AFC, so they’ll select the best player available.
Jalen Carter might not only be the top defensive prospect on the board — he could be the best player in the draft, period. A unanimous All-American selection in 2022, Carter has insane movement ability for a player that stands 6’3″ and 300 pounds, and he’s the best interior defensive prospect to enter the draft in some time.
Carter’s draft stock is murky following a January racing incident in which Georgia offensive lineman Devin Willock and recruiting coordinator Chandler Willock were killed. But as PFN’s Arif Hasan wrote this week, Carter did not cause the accident, nor was he driving while impaired. He has cooperated with police and has already pleaded guilty to reckless driving and racing.
If the Seahawks are comfortable with Carter off the field, it’s a no-brainer to add him to their defense, which needs work after ranking 21st in DVOA and 25th in points allowed. Seattle has already boosted its front by signing former Broncos defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones and reuniting with Jarran Reed. Carter could be the final piece of the puzzle.
6) Detroit Lions: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
If Will Anderson Jr. is still available when the Lions pick at No. 6, general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell will sprint to turn in their card.
One of the most decorated college defenders in recent memory, Anderson is a two-time All-American, a two-time winner of the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, and finished fifth in Heisman voting in 2021. He posted an absurd 27.5 sacks and 48 tackles for loss over his final two seasons at Alabama.
Anderson has been viewed as a potential top-five pick since his freshman year, but the quarterback class and Carter push him just outside that range here. The Lions aren’t complaining, as they’ll pair Anderson with Aidan Hutchinson to form one of the most dynamic young edge-rushing duos in the league.
Like Seattle, Detroit could consider taking their quarterback of the future if the situation presents itself. But with Jared Goff fresh off one of the best seasons of his career and the Lions firmly in their competitive window, Detroit chooses to boost its defense.
7) Arizona Cardinals (from LV): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
After trading back and acquiring more draft capital, the Cardinals could go in any number of directions. If they want an offensive lineman, Paris Johnson Jr. and Broderick Jones are still on the board. Edge rusher makes more sense? Tyree Wilson and Myles Murphy are available.
But Arizona desperately needs help in its cornerback room, and their need aligns with the value on the board. Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez — the No. 4 prospect on PFN’s Big Board and No. 7 on the Industry Consensus Big Board — is considered the best corner in the draft and will instantly improve the Cardinals’ defensive backfield.
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Arizona’s cornerback depth chart has been among the worst in the league since Patrick Peterson departed in 2021, and it’s looking even less attractive now that Byron Murphy has signed with the Vikings. If the season started today, the Cardinals would likely start Marco Wilson, Rashad Fenton, and linebacker convert Isaiah Simmons in nickel packages.
Gannon was lucky enough to coach Darius Slay and James Bradberry with the Eagles in 2022, and that pair’s shutdown coverage helped Philadelphia boast one of the best defenses in the NFL. Gonzalez, who can play in the slot or out wide and thrive in any scheme, could offer the same sort of high-end play for the Cardinals.