Things went poorly in New England last season. Although the team’s defense ranked among the league’s best in many metrics, including eighth in yards per game, fifth in yards per play, and third in both DVOA and EPA, the team finished 8-9 and missed the postseason for just the second time since 2008. Yet, it was the second time in the past three seasons.
And it was because the New England Patriots were an offensive disaster orchestrated by Bill Belichick himself. In a league that has continuously proven about as meritocratic as Pro Bowl voting, Belichick took it to another level last season. In a way, it makes sense, given there aren’t many 70-somethings that want to meet and work with new people. But having Matt Patricia calling offensive plays was never going to be anything but a disaster, and Joe Judge was equally… offensive… as the team’s QB coach.
They’re not bad coaches, and they’re obviously team players. While things didn’t work out for either as head coaches, Patricia has been a solid defensive coach for nearly two decades, and Judge gave the Patriots some of the best special-teams units in the league during his time in that role. They were simply put in a position to fail, and they obliged.
This leads us to the debate between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.
Mac Jones vs. Bailey Zappe Remains One-Sided
Among quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts in 2022, only Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, Davis Mills, and Joe Flacco had a worse QBR than Jones. Even Zach Wilson and Russell Wilson managed better in that metric than Jones. Yet, Zappe (34.4) was even lower than Jones (35.9).
Nevertheless, among QBs with at least 100 plays, Zappe had the highest CPOE in the NFL (5.8%) compared to Jones (-0.4%). The passing attack also provided a higher dropback EPA (0.065) than with Jones on the field (-0.031). But the sample size is an issue here, as Jones gave us 416 more samples.
Just a year prior with Josh McDaniels — an actual offensive mind calling the shots — Jones played the best of all rookie quarterbacks by a significant margin. And while Bill O’Brien doesn’t have McDaniel’s pedigree on offense, he is a capable offensive coach.
MORE: PFN’s Free NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Trades
Jones will have every opportunity to be the team’s Week 1 starter if there is no movement in the offseason QB market. Zappe, meanwhile, will have a chance to push Jones for the starting spot. But in January, Belichick admitted everyone needed to be better when it came to Jones.
“Mac has the ability to play quarterback in this league,” Belichick told reporters.”We have to all work together to try to find the best way as a football team — which obviously quarterback’s an important position — to be more productive than we were this year. So that’s incumbent on all of us. We’ll all work together on that, and again, look for better results.”
Things would be more intriguing if the two contenders weren’t so similar. Jones and Zappe are both heady quarterbacks who lack the type of creative mobility to be a consistent threat on the ground, and both have underwhelming arms relative to many in the league.
Zappe threw for a bajillion yards in college and was very impressive during the Senior Bowl. He’s a gamer, but the lack of physical upside remains. Jones recomposed his body a bit between his rookie and sophomore seasons and has made more plays outside of structure than he ever did at Alabama.
In the end, they’re both somewhat limited players who can lead successful offenses if the situation surrounding them is conducive to it, but Jones has more upside. There’s also more riding on Jones’ success, given he was the 15th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
But the locker room was split a season ago, according to Devin McCourty.
“It was just a back-and-forth, which to me, spoke more about what we had on offense than the quarterback,” McCourty told WEEI. “We never were solidified as an offensive group that guys had full confidence in anything we were doing. There was never true hope.”
Trading Mac Jones Doesn’t Make Sense (Right Now)
Rumors have consistently circulated about Jones’ availability on the trade market. However, high-ranking officials from both conferences told The Athletic that the Patriots haven’t approached them about Jones.
And if he were on the market, it would have been made clear before now. With veteran quarterbacks like Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, and even Jacoby Brissett available at the onset of free agency, that is when it would have made sense to get reliable leaks about shopping Jones.
But the Patriots didn’t pursue those players, and it doesn’t make sense to move Jones without a veteran option available on the open market. In addition, the team is said to be out on acquiring Lamar Jackson.
MORE: Could the Patriots Be Looking To Add Bijan Robinson in the Draft?
If a trade were to materialize, it would likely come on draft day, either because one of the top QBs in the draft started sliding or they want to sneak ahead of teams to draft one of the four projected first-rounders.
Belichick doesn’t have much time left. He’s 30 regular-season wins away from breaking Don Shula’s record of 328. Belichick is as much a football historian as he is a coach. And while his legacy as the greatest coach ever is likely already cemented, breaking the regular-season wins record would slam the final nail into the debate’s coffin.
Ridding himself of a QB who, as a rookie, won them 10 games and looked like he could legitimately lead any NFL team as a mid-level starter would not be smart. That’s especially true considering the secondary option is Zappe, who has far less experience and pedigree at the NFL level.