As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency continuing to roll on and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the dynasty rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
I know rookies can’t win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award, but Robinson unquestionably had as tumultuous of a start to a career as possible. A third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft out of Alabama, Robinson was the victim of an attempted carjacking, resulting in him sustaining multiple gunshot wounds to his leg.
After seemingly winning the starting job during preseason, it appeared not only that Robinson’s 2023 season was over but possibly his career. However, after only four games on injured reserve, Robinson returned in one of the more powerful moments of the season.
From Week 6 onward, Robinson averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game (RB34), but that doesn’t paint the whole story. His volume was elite, averaging 17.8 attempts per game, which placed him fourth in carries with an average of nearly 70 yards per contest.
The issue for Robinson and what will keep him out of the next tier is the lack of receiving utilization. As a rookie, he saw just 12 targets, catching nine passes for 60 yards with a touchdown. He also only scored two touchdowns on his 24 red-zone rushing attempts, each coming on carries inside the 5.
Volume is great and a foundational pillar of fantasy value, but there needs to also be a mix of upside touches, either via targets or touchdowns. I can live with only one of two, but lacking both would make Robinson a perennial RB3 with little upside.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Dynasty Fantasy Ranking
Although Antonio Gibson will eat into Robinson’s opportunities and fantasy value, I expect some positive TD regression, as we expect more scores on his level of volume. In fact, Robinson’s 14 carries from inside the 10-yard line were the most of any player to score fewer than three rushing touchdowns.
While I wouldn’t place Robinson in the RB2 range, he’s in the mid-RB3 range for dynasty running backs as the RB28 in PPR formats. Robinson is best as a complementary option on your roster rather than a bailout for those who have built zero-RB rosters, given the lack of weekly upside, barring a hopeful 2023 improvement. In Superflex formats, due to the increased value of QBs, Robinson is ranked No. 65 overall.
There is enough upside in Robinson that holding him on your dynasty roster should be just fine in 2023. Even in a committee like this, despite not having the PPR volume, the TD volume and secure grasp of the high-leverage opportunities should keep Robinson in the RB3/Flex range for this season so long as the Commanders’ offense under Sam Howell can consistently find the end zone this year.
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Expect a more diverse offense under Eric Bieniemy, who left the Kansas City Chiefs to become the assistant head coach and offensive coordinator for the Commanders. If he can bring the same level of creativity — minus the whole not having Patrick Mahomes part — Washington could be a fun offense to watch in 2023.
However, if we get into the middle of the season and things aren’t looking so hot from an offensive scoring aspect, Robinson might be a sell candidate, so be sure to keep a close eye on his trade market.