The 2023 NFL free agency is right around the corner. While some players will work out extensions to remain with their current teams, most will become unrestricted free agents and hit the open market, which very well could be the case for Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery. Proven to be one of the more underrated players at his position, what are some possible landing spots for Montgomery for the 2023 season?
David Montgomery Free Agency Predictions
With the franchise tag deadline having come and gone, Montgomery is heading toward free agency following four years in the Windy City.
As part of a deep and talented free agency RB class, there’s a case we made that Montgomery is the most talented running back available. With Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, and Tony Pollard all receiving franchise tags to stay with their respective teams, Montgomery will lead the position into the open market and likely come away with a rather lucrative contract due to how quickly the position dried up.
With free agency less than a week away, predictions on where Montgomery will eventually sign his contract are firing off at full speed.
David Montgomery Could Be a Massive Addition to the Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins enter the 2023 offseason with a gaping hole in their backfield as Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Salvon Ahmed (RFA), and Myles Gaskin are all slated to become free agents, leaving the depth chart utterly barren at the RB position.
Montgomery would be a slam-dunk option if the team opts to go through the free agency route rather than the NFL draft to address this. Set to turn 26, Montgomery is a more-than-capable three-down back and could thrive in Mike McDaniel’s rushing scheme.
While he would be more expensive from a salary cap perspective than a rookie — given that Miami is slightly behind the eight ball having forfeited their first-round pick — the addition of Montgomery during free agency would turn one of the biggest offseason questions for the Dolphins into one of their strengths come Week 1.
Could the Carolina Panthers Be Interested in Montgomery?
The Carolina Panthers all but announced to the world they were entering a rebuild when they elected to trade away Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers during the middle of last season.
However, that’s not to say they ultimately punted the position, as both D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard found success last year. Together the duo combined for nearly 1,600 scrimmage yards with seven touchdowns. Of the two, Foreman was the lead back and has proven to be a reliable backup option, having filled in for a similar role in 2021 for an injured Derrick Henry. However, after combining for 940 yards on 208 touches, Foreman is also slated to hit free agency.
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The Panthers want to make the rushing game a priority. During the offseason, they brought in Duce Staley from the Detroit Lions to be their assistant head coach and running backs coach.
Staley was instrumental in the Lions’ rushing success while implementing a two-back approach with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. Even if Carolina wants to bring back Foreman, adding a dual-threat running back like Montgomery makes complete sense for an offense lacking playmakers.
Is Montgomery the Answer to the Buffalo Bills Backfield?
Like the Bears, the Buffalo Bills also have one of their own running backs hitting free agency, as Devin Singletary is set to become a free agent after the expiration of his rookie contract. While he was never expected to be a dominant RB, Singletary was a solid addition to the Bills and played well, with nearly 1,100 scrimmage yards in each of the previous two years and 14 combined touchdowns.
Yet, Montgomery is a more talented RB and would be an upgrade for Buffalo. The Bills are still in their championship window, but at some point, they need to start making big-time moves to keep up with teams like Kansas City and Cincinnati.
Buffalo has continuously tinkered with their RB depth chart, including last year with the additions of Nyheim Hines and drafting James Cook out of Georgia, both of which are sensational receiving options. Cook is electric and was extremely efficient on a per-touch basis, but he lacks the play strength to go in between the tackles.
This is where Montgomery would come in, as the Bills would have one of the most dynamic and talented 1-2 punches at running back in the league. With success in both short-area and goal-to-go situations, Montgomery absolutely has the talent to cash in on those opportunities.
Paired with Cook as the receiving option, who could also be split out wide, adding Montgomery to Buffalo’s offense makes this team even scarier and allows the Bills to go in any direction they choose during the 2023 NFL Draft.
David Montgomery Market Value, Career Stats, and More
As a rookie, some were always going to be skeptical of Montgomery. The worst part about it is it’s not even his fault. The public perception of Montgomery was set in stone when the infamous “Frankenstein” graphic flashed on everyone’s screens while he was still at Iowa State. That’s still following him to this day.
While he never won the rushing title or has been measured for a gold jacket, Montgomery has been a solid NFL running back. Rushing for 889 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie, Montgomery had his best season in the NFL during his second year. Despite the turmoil of 2020, Montgomery rushed for 1,070 yards. He recorded 1,508 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns, with the bulk of his efficiency coming when then-offensive coordinator Bill Lazor took over play-calling duties from former head coach Matt Nagy.
2021 and 2022 were both reasonably successful seasons, although Montgomery failed to reach the 900 rushing-yard threshold in either year. 2022 saw him have his lowest production yet, rushing 201 times for 801 yards and five touchdowns while also catching 34 of his 40 targets for 316 yards with one touchdown across 16 games.
With that said, it would be unfair to place all the blame strictly on Montgomery’s shoulders. He’s played behind a poor offensive line throughout his career and was subject to highly questionable play-calling.
Yet, the advanced stats paint Montgomery in a far more favorable light. He was seventh in missed tackles and yards per route run, 18th in yards created, and fourth in yards per reception.
Coming in at No. 78 on PFN’s Top 100 free agents, Montgomery is going to be an extremely interesting player to watch during the contract negotiation period. He’s not a top-tier running back, but likely the top of the mid-tier, and could very well become the new benchmark in this range.
According to Spotrac, Montgomery carries an estimated market value of $7.2 million AAV on a three-year, $21.68 million contract. This number falls in the proper ballpark range, with Montgomery signing a nearly identical deal to what Leonard Fournette signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Although it’s worth noting that Bears insider Chris Emma stated Montgomery might be looking toward the Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon contracts as a benchmark.
“Montgomery might seek $12 million annually, which is what running backs Aaron Jones (Packers) and Joe Mixon (Bengals) receive from their teams. That figure is tied for the seventh-highest annual salary for a running back.
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While I can’t completely rule out a return to Chicago until the ink is dry, I fully expect to see Montgomery playing for a different team in 2023 and beyond.
General manager Ryan Poles also stated during his end-of-year press conference in January that he would like to see Montgomery back next season. “I’ve always wanted to keep David,” Poles said. “I love his mentality, how he plays the game.”
Right after, however, Poles mentioned the likely hangup — contract negotiations. “Now, the second part of that is just the contract situation,” Poles said. “That’s something that we’ll see how that goes and if we can find common ground. Obviously, I’ve learned that you can want a player and the value’s got to come together for it to happen.”
The body of work shows a well-rounded, three-down RB who can thrive when things go his way. If whatever team Montomgery is playing for in 2022 is sound up front and can open a few extra lanes than in the last few years for him, watch for Montgomery to become one of the biggest surprises in 2023.
David Montgomery Career Stats
- Rushing Attempts: 915
- Rushing Yards: 3,609
- Rushing Touchdowns: 26
- Targets: 194
- Receptions: 155
- Receiving Yards: 1,240
- Receiving Touchdowns: 4