As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Matthew Stafford.
Matthew Stafford’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
Since entering the league in 2009, Stafford has finished as a QB1 in eight seasons. He’s mostly been a very reliable fantasy quarterback, albeit one who really lacks that game-breaking ceiling.
Heading into the 2022 season, Stafford was one of the easiest fades at the QB position. He had just come off a season where he threw for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. Yet, he merely finished as the overall QB11. However, no one could’ve predicted what actually happened to Stafford last season.
Stafford’s 2021 performance felt like his absolute ceiling. But, at the very least, I and many others viewed him as a high-floor quarterback. After all, he’d averaged at least 16.3 fantasy points per game in 10 of his past 11 seasons.
Instead, the wheels completely fell off the Rams’ offense. Stafford actually completed a career-high 68% of his passes, but injuries limited him to nine games. In those contests, he was completely unstartable in fantasy.
Stafford averaged a career-worst 12.9 ppg and was the overall QB28. On the season, Stafford finished as a QB1 in just a single week.
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There’s certainly reason for concern. The Rams’ offensive line completely fell apart, and they’ll have a difficult time rebuilding it in just a year or two. Nevertheless, Stafford was exceptional under pressure, completing 70% of his throws, good for third-best in the league.
Stafford is 35 years old. Traditional pocket passers like him can easily play into their late 30s/early 40s, as we’ve seen with plenty of his contemporaries, such as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. But once the quality of play starts to decline, it usually doesn’t rebound at an advanced age.
With that said, I don’t think Stafford’s skills are necessarily eroding. 2022 was just a confluence of worst-case-scenario events. Between the offensive line, injuries, and LA’s supporting cast being pretty awful outside of Cooper Kupp, Stafford was set up to fail.
I don’t see Stafford leaving Los Angeles. He is signed through the 2026 season, and the team can’t really cut him until the final year of his deal. The only realistic way he’s leaving is if he retires. Stafford indicated he plans to play this year, but reports surfaced in early March that retirement is still on the table. I still think Stafford intends to play another 3-4 years, but his body may not let him.
The question fantasy managers need to answer is whether Stafford’s production can return to previous levels.
Matthew Stafford’s Fantasy Ranking
The Rams’ front office has work to do, but Stafford can’t possibly be worse in 2023. I’m expecting a sizable rebound. I don’t think 20 ppg is in his range of outcomes anymore, but he can definitely post high-QB2 numbers.
In single-quarterback dynasty leagues, Stafford has to remain on fantasy rosters. Obviously, in Superflex leagues, he’s a must-roster. Consider Stafford a mid QB2 for the foreseeable future. Currently, he’s our QB20 (No. 74 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings.
The state of the QB position is as bad as I can ever remember in the NFL. There aren’t 24 quality NFL starters floating around. Stafford has earned the benefit of the doubt, that is, assuming he can stay on the field.
While I do think Stafford bounces back, the latter has me concerned enough to avoid Stafford in dynasty startup drafts, though.